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Tropical Hurricane Ida

NCSNOW said:
Thanks guys. Katrina eye went east NO. This will be west, way it looks now. That will be harder hit from that standpoint as it pushes water back up river. However the lake will be getting pushed away from metro , se wind until backside. Beleive the breaches where from lake, north flow on north side metro pushing down on levees Katrina. NO will get a double punch from this projected track.
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The east of New Orleans solution is actually a pretty realistic one at this point, esp considering the consistent eastward shifts we've seen (& continue to see) on guidance the past day or two.
 
whatalife said:
www.nola.com

New Orleans to hunker down for Ida as it's too late for mandatory evacuations, mayor says

Mayor LaToya Cantrell on Friday said that with little time left before Hurricane Ida reaches Louisiana, residents should get ready to hunker down and ride out the storm.
www.nola.com www.nola.com

You would think after Katrina there would be a better plan in place. Thoughts and prayers go out to all in Ida’s path.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yes. LA, MS, AL, GA, TN, up through VA all need prayers.
 
Am I missing something with this position of no evacuation the mayor is taking???? This seems ridiculous and blatantly unwise. I don't understand how not evacuating NO, regardless of how great the levees are now, can be allowed to happen.
 
Shaggy said:
My cousin lives in NOLA and has posted plenty of pics and videos of her walking through knee deep water this year from afternoon thunderstorms. I can't imagine the pumps will keep up with surge and rain threats but we are gonna find out sadly.
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Yeah. I don't buy it either. Isaac took a similar path as the forecast with 65MPH winds from the SE, producing 8-10 foot storm surge to NO.
 
Tornadocane said:
Yeah. I don't buy it either. Isaac took a similar path as the forecast with 65MPH winds from the SE, producing 8-10 foot storm surge to NO.
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Very ballsy call and probably the wrong one but there's not a lot of time and it would risk leaving people stranded on roadways as a major hurricane hit. They should have started 2 days ago.
 
Gopack42 said:
Am I missing something with this position of no evacuation the mayor is taking???? This seems ridiculous and blatantly unwise. I don't understand how not evacuating NO, regardless of how great the levees are now, can be allowed to happen.
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It's down to a simple case of not enough time.
For those with vehicles, there's not enough gas and not enough lanes of highways to get people out in the time left (yes, even with contraflow).
You run the major risk of having too many stuck in a complete traffic jam with the worst of the weather approaching.

It's the dirty little secret of most urban cities in major hurricane threat areas. There is no escape for everyone.
This comes from a career highway engineer; the math is not difficult.
Most state and local governments have retreated to the 'Shelter In Place' and 'Hunker Down' strategic planning now.
And then they hope for the best. You're seeing it in action.

I'm going to say some prayers and hope the Good Lord is listening.
 
I guess we're gonna find out how great those levees really are

But I kind of feel the same way... It floods in a summer thunderstorm!!

I do see the point about time though... I mean in 36 hours or less theres gonna be conditions where you can't be out
 
Shaggy said:
Very ballsy call and probably the wrong one but there's not a lot of time and it would risk leaving people stranded on roadways as a major hurricane hit. They should have started 2 days ago.
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Well they most definitely should have begun evacuating people today, but people are claiming that there are 500-year-flood resistant shelters for people to ride out the storm. Did we all of sudden forget about Covid-19? I don't care if everyone was vaccinated and masked in those shelters, the spread of large viral loads within a closed area will become an enormous humanitarian crisis within itself. The Biden Administration is going to get a call real soon.
 
HMON is way too strong in the short term. Looks like landfall at 937mb and 145mph.

Both hurricane models have it pushing Cat 4 by tomorrow evening.
 
Arcc said:
I think it’s more that we(I mostly mean myself) were fooled. If you animate the sat you can see the hot towers banding closer to where I have the L than the open area.
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I agree and recon says pretty close to that as well
 
Ida is down 988Mbs according to the latest dropsonde. Center has moved further west near the Convection.

Ida (2021) - Sonde - Atlantic AF Miss. 6 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Ida in 2021 from Air Force mission 6 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com

I'm thinking once Ida moves farther away from Cuba, inflow from the SE will allow for a blow-up of thunderstorms around the East and NE. Can already see it coming back on Satellite, and the Western Convection trying to wrap to the S and SE. The construction of an eyewall will begin RI, and I think we'll probably see the system tighten up further NNE.
 
HDGator said:
It's down to a simple case of not enough time.
For those with vehicles, there's not enough gas and not enough lanes of highways to get people out in the time left (yes, even with contraflow).
You run the major risk of having too many stuck in a complete traffic jam with the worst of the weather approaching.

It's the dirty little secret of most urban cities in major hurricane threat areas. There is no escape for everyone.
This comes from a career highway engineer; the math is not difficult.
Most state and local governments have retreated to the 'Shelter In Place' and 'Hunker Down' strategic planning now.
And then they hope for the best. You're seeing it in action.

I'm going to say some prayers and hope the Good Lord is listening.
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Thank you for your insight. Interesting.
 
Euro holds on landfall location. Like the gfs it's a minor shift of 20 miles or so maybe? At this point the models.are locked in just west of NOLA
 
Some hot towers going up on the North side of the LLC.
1bd8a107-ef00-4d18-b81b-a48a93143500.jpg

Wrapping around NW and W Side
e665f00e-f35f-46db-9017-87185ffaac77.jpg

Now convection is wrapping around the SE side of the Storm. Cuban radar shows convection popping on East and West side of the eye-wall. Looks like vorts are stacked on Satellite.
7d643afd-a1d7-4a44-bd51-bf755df138f9-1.jpg
 
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I think today is a very important day for setting up for landfall. NHC and models "bend" this back more NW starting later this am.
 
deltadog03 said:
I think today is a very important day for setting up for landfall. NHC and models "bend" this back more NW starting later this am.
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Not the ugliest storm ever but doesnt look to be off to the races yet, still got some work to do structurally....but its getting there. Recon will shed some light on the internal structure.
 
Recon about to arrive in the storm. Should be some interesting passes over the course of the morning as it's arriving just as Ida is paused to strengthen based on satellite.
 
Dropsonde measured a 987Mb SFPR. A second Dropsonde measured 94MPH winds just above surface, and 81MPH surface winds out of the SW. Thought the pressure would be lower at this point.

Ida (2021) - Sonde - Atlantic NOAA Miss. 8 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Ida in 2021 from NOAA mission 8 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com
 
Tornadocane said:
Dropsonde measured a 987Mb SFPR. A second Dropsonde measured 94MPH winds just above surface, and 81MPH surface winds out of the SW. Thought the pressure would be lower at this point.

Ida (2021) - Sonde - Atlantic NOAA Miss. 8 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Ida in 2021 from NOAA mission 8 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com
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The storm has been slow to recover from its passes over land overnight. But, it has looked markedly better on satellite over the past few hours.
 
Tornadocane said:
Agreed. Also seemed like the storm was having trouble fanning out to the south. Didn't really see much LL inflow and UL outflow.
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Yep. But man, it's really getting it together this AM. Each frame looks more impressive than the last. I'll be shocked if there isn't some impressive pressure falls with each recon center punch.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Yep. But man, it's really getting it together this AM. Each frame looks more impressive than the last. I'll be shocked if there isn't some impressive pressure falls with each recon center punch.
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Yeah this new band wraps the center and persist then she will undergo RI with that core she built.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Yep. But man, it's really getting it together this AM. Each frame looks more impressive than the last. I'll be shocked if there isn't some impressive pressure falls with each recon center punch.
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I'd literally take a three hour nap if they measured the same readings. It actually looks like Recon is going to find some decent winds on the NE side this time around. They're measuring 76 Knot flight level winds a ways from the COC.

Second Recon plane has found a 984Mb pressure, so it looks like this thing is quickly ramping up.

Ida (2021) - HDOB - Atlantic AF Miss. 9 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded High-Density Observations (HDOB) available for Ida in 2021 from Air Force mission 9 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com
 
Huh. So recon reporting an elliptical eye. So satellite imagery isn't as strange as I thought.
 
HSVweather said:


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A lot of nerds are going to be severely disappointed if this thing doesn’t RI! They almost seem disappointed it’s not a Cat 4 already! Geez
The double eyewall look, is not conducive for a monster , intense storm . It seems these have happened a few times in the last few years and they seem to keep the storm from reaching its max potential
 
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