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Tropical Hurricane Ida

0z GFS stronger than the 12z GFS.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png
 
Looks like the east trend is over for now and like the icon the gfs ticks west and is stronger than the 18z runs. Little surprised actually. I though the center relocation would have led to a slight east bump.
 

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Well I definitely think in the short term that Western Tip of Cuba is not very likely. There shouldn't be another significant center reform east with hot towers going up around the center.

Outflow is becoming fairly well established with what currently looks like the poleward outflow hinting at where Ida crosses Cuba.
No doubt, the shear over Ida is relaxing, especially high aloft. (Could be some undercut under 250mb).
 
Crazy how that bubble of extra high ocean heat content just happens to be in the perfect position for a relatively maximum usage from IDA … it just looks like a recipe for something spectacular to be witnessed .. but maybe it’s just more run of the mill … I think not F2314BDC-AE81-4A2A-9726-244E90C0FAB2.png
 
I've got "Fishing Friends" on a fishing board that often fish those Oil Rigs Waaay out in the Gulf, (100 plus miles), I'm talking over night Trips w/fuel bladders too get themselves, *Out Der* & back, they are reporting 91~92 F Loop current waters out there..
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Crazy how that bubble of extra high ocean heat content just happens to be in the perfect position for a relatively maximum usage from IDA … it just looks like a recipe for something spectacular to be witnessed .. but maybe it’s just more run of the mill … I think not View attachment 89280
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It looks more bad than 2017.
 
wow, this thing barely getting started south of Cuba and already spreading cirrus up to Orlando. woof. well, with bathtub water temps ahead and shear going away, and it being late August, I wanna say this one ends up with a max intensity at cat 3/4, with landfall at cat 2/3. also I wanna say a tick east based on the seasonal trends, so somewhere eastern LA or western MS.
 
deltadog03 said:
Recon is on the way. Let's see where the true center is. I expect a 50+ TS when they get there.
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It sucks because it's night time but the vis/IR loop shows the low cloud field really accelerating into the LLC. Wouldn't be surprised if they find a much better LLC this time and a strengthening storm.
 
Shaggy said:
It sucks because it's night time but the vis/IR loop shows the low cloud field really accelerating into the LLC. Wouldn't be surprised if they find a much better LLC this time and a strengthening storm.
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I WOULD HAVE TO AGREE, THEM CLOUDS ARE RACING TO THAT LLC AND THEM HOT TOWERS TO THE NORTH ARE FIRING OFF RAPIDLY
 
I'm a goof. That was an upper level mission. I think we have to wait a little longer for recon.
 
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