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Tropical Hurricane Ida

One of the HH missions has winds of 90 MPH at Flight and Surface levels. All of is't data just flooded out in the last few minutes.
 
New microwave pass looks somewhat favorable for Ida to kickstart an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) with spiral banding wrapping more than halfway around the small, young eyewall. Curious if we'll see it meld together, dissipate, or be a long arduous struggle as is more often the case w/ much stronger major hurricanes that encounter land interaction like this.

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New microwave pass looks somewhat favorable for Ida to kickstart an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) with spiral banding wrapping more than halfway around the small, young eyewall. Curious if we'll see it meld together, dissipate, or be a long arduous struggle as is more often the case w/ much stronger major hurricanes that encounter land interaction like this.

View attachment 89421
If it comples an EWRC tonight, is there enough time that it will do again closer to landfall?
 

Recon found lowest pressures over 84W and 23N, so I think you may be bit too far NE with your pimple. It's on the extreme east side of solutions, but I don't think it's outside the wet spaghetti.

Also, I don't think they actually got to the true COC. On Tropical Tidbits, the image of the HH pass suggests that they couldn't reach the lowest pressures, because they were not able to fly any closer to Cuba. The HH site suggests lowest pressure was further S and W of tropical tidbits.
 
Recon found lowest pressures over 84W and 23N, so I think you may be bit too far NE with your pimple. It's on the extreme east side of solutions, but I don't think it's outside the wet spaghetti.

Also, I don't think they actually got to the true COC. On Tropical Tidbits, the image of the HH pass suggests that they couldn't reach the lowest pressures, because they were not able to fly any closer to Cuba. The HH site suggests lowest pressure was further S and W of tropical tidbits.
and that might be true for sure. The center might migrate more toward that deepest convection SW side for sure.
 
creating a dangerous precedent having the pump stations work based on if they have electricity during the storm, can imagine it’s a national security risk too if hacked. I hope people don’t come to rely on the pump stations based on Ida or any storm it’s prob best to get out @Webberweather53
 
and that might be true for sure. The center might migrate more toward that deepest convection SW side for sure.

Hey... I know you're a Met and I know I get a lot wrong, but I'm just extremely confident about this being closer to Cuba. They literally had to stop and change courses as they were nearing the lowest pressures by the Cuban Coast, and that 991-993Mb data has SE to N and NE winds of 30-35 MPH. I think next pass it will be off the coast.

I don't know why no one is posting the Cuban Radar. It's probably the best resource to detect the COC. Wouldn't that settle things?
 
Hey... I know you're a Met and I know I get a lot wrong, but I'm just extremely confident about this being closer to Cuba. They literally had to stop and change courses as they were nearing the lowest pressures by the Cuban Coast, and that 991-993Mb data has SE to N and NE winds of 30-35 MPH. I think next pass it will be off the coast.

I don't know why no one is posting the Cuban Radar. It's probably the best resource to detect the COC. Wouldn't that settle things?
oh hell I get plenty of things wrong...tag or no tag...hahah
 
The ridge is always underestimated. ALWAYS. The major east shift into Alabama/Florida panhandle you guys are dying to see will likely never occur or verify. Sure there’s always a small chance and forecasting mistakes are made, but I am extremely doubtful in a major shift at this point in time. The wishcasting so blatantly obvious. I am 85% confident that this will be an LA land falling storm.
 
The ridge is always underestimated. ALWAYS. The major east shift into Alabama/Florida panhandle you guys are dying to see will likely never occur or verify. I am 85% confident that this will be an LA land falling storm.

Explain “dying to see”


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Explain “dying to see”


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There’s members on here that have been advocating/hoping for an eastern shift in the guidance. I truly don’t mind wishcasting but when it comes to life threatening Hurricanes and catastrophic events, it ends up causing confusion and quite frankly clogs the thread of valuable credible information.
 
There’s members on here that have been advocating/hoping for an eastern shift in the guidance. I truly don’t mind wishcasting but when it comes to life threatening Hurricanes and catastrophic events, it ends up causing confusion and quite frankly clogs the thread of valuable credible information.

It happens year round. Winter is hands down the worst


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oh hell I get plenty of things wrong...tag or no tag...hahah

Yeah... But there's those people that just want to be "right" all the time instead of actually being right. It'd actually be pretty cool if we could put money on coordinates, winds, and pressures found by Recon. That would have settled a lot back in the early days. This is like the legit best way for weather sites to make money. However, there's an age issue, but like I've put rules together for websites skirting gambling rules. But it's not even gambling cause it could become a game of skill. Why has no one thought of this? OMG... This needs to happen. lol. I'd lose money and still be happy just to be playing lol.
 
There’s members on here that have been advocating/hoping for an eastern shift in the guidance. I truly don’t mind wishcasting but when it comes to life threatening Hurricanes and catastrophic events, it ends up causing confusion and quite frankly clogs the thread of valuable credible information.

I’m no fan of wish casting but I think only east shift is once it gets inland. Does it go up through Tennessee or make the east turn quicker and perhaps go up through north Georgia and NC/SC. Of course this topic more for the inland threat thread. But this is hitting Louisiana that’s pretty evident


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Yeah she's ready

Radar data from Cuba indicate that the inner core of Ida has
remained intact after its passage over western Cuba with a
well-defined eye and relatively symmetric eyewall evident. In
addition, satellite images show deep convection increasing in both
intensity and coverage, a sign that Ida is strengthening.
 
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