Shaggy
Member
I'm a little surprised by that wind speed. The sat presentation does not scream 60mph to me.
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Tropical Hurricane Ida
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
I'm a little surprised by that wind speed. The sat presentation does not scream 60mph to me.
Does the NAM really suck that bad???
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Man I really don't see how this thing wouldn't reach a category 4 or 5. Just common sense is telling me a category 3 is way underestimated. Just get the gut feeling that this will be a very very strong hurricane. It's got too good of environment if anything
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Unfortunately at times yes, it can be wildly wrong. Best example I can remember was it sending matthew to bermuda instead of up the EC
Seems most if not all models have shifted slightly west, putting NOLA on the worse side of the storm and here is the EPS (if it's been posted previously I apologize, slow morning lol)
Z
Zander98al
Guest
I'd say that consensus is the worst. It sets the stage for severe episodes over the south and puts one of the largest cities in the south on the highest storm surge of ida. Recipe for trouble.
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HSVweather
Member
Ida certainly has that young cyclone resolving its inner core and fighting a few other factors look this morning. It'll be interesting to see if this new blow up of storms near the center can maintain itself. Once this passes the tip of Cuba the environment becomes much more favorable
That model bless its heart
EMTime
Member
If this thing reaches a cat 3 or 4 people need to get the hell out by any means possible or we "could" see a repeat of 05.
I lived through that.
I lived through that.
Bannerdude
Member
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears the latest recon data puts the CoC within the red circle. Are we still dealing with a MLC displaced from the LLC?
Might be a little tilted due to some SW shear but yeah the center is NE of where the Euro initialized. However, in the end models are showing a strong ridge that continues to extend westward keeping the track left of NOLA at this time. We'll see what the 12z models look like with new data and how the initialize the center
One thing I have noticed the last couple of years the storms that have undergone RI have had this 9 structure with a tail of deep convection to the SE
FL winds continue to increase and deep convection right over the LLC, might make a run at H before Cuba
SWVAwxfan
Member
Don't think it's if. It's when it reaches cat 3 or 4.
You'd think so. I saw a Twitter thread about this last hurricane season and I'm looking to find it.