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Tropical Hurricane Ida

Cadi40 said:
Even if Ida is slightly right of forecast at the moment, it’s effects down the road are going to be minimal. Nothing changes the fact that there’s a giant ridge over the SE and it’s not budging for Ida.
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Yea but big Stroms have been know to make their own path
 
ForsythSnow said:
Interesting they jump straight to 120 then hold it before landfall. Pretty sure that's the more conservative end because of the unpredictable nature of storms near landfall. Worst case it's 120 on approach and pulls a Michael or Harvey and RI's at landfall to a 4 or 5, best case is it weakens and maxes over the water. Still going faster than previous cones however.
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I think the bigger problem is the slow down right before landfall. That'll let the surge really pile up.
 
Cadi40 said:
Even if Ida is slightly right of forecast at the moment, it’s effects down the road are going to be minimal. Nothing changes the fact that there’s a giant ridge over the SE and it’s not budging for Ida.
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IMO, its all about the orientation of the ridge. If you see a more NW to SE orientation, NOLA may be east of landfall. However, if it sets up in a more N to S orientation, I think NOLA becomes a major concern area.
 
Cadi40 said:
Even if Ida is slightly right of forecast at the moment, it’s effects down the road are going to be minimal. Nothing changes the fact that there’s a giant ridge over the SE and it’s not budging for Ida.
Click to expand...
Well everyone on the Twitter world is saying the opposite. Everyone is saying the near term 24-48 is critical for path/intensity. Storm surge is coming yes but no one can say what side NOLA will end up on which is huge when dealing with winds over 120mph.
 
Kinda odd Elsa/Fred and now Ida all end up hitting very close to the same region of Cuba. Stale wind pattern must be somewhat similar down there and if so I could see this end up hitting eastern Louisiana before blasting through parts of west Georgia.
 
Ida is right of NHC'S immediate short term plot..but that's a direct result of continued convective tugging... It also appears last pass showing FL winds >64kts on the SE and E quads... Also an "apparent" speed up between previous plots.

Possible hurricane by 2pm..
Likely to definitely one by 5pm..

Probably a major on Saturday...I believe Cat 4 by Saturday evening... Earlier than official plots..

I always overstate the necessity to prepare for a storm 2 CAT higher than official (better to overprepared than under).

Residents in the cone should be preparing as if Ida could reach Cat 5 status... Realistically... Ida will attain Cat 4 status well before landfall.. question is will near shore issues (dry air off land/interactions) have some disruptions just before landfall to stymie/weaken Ida some before landfall
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Well everyone on the Twitter world is saying the opposite. Everyone is saying the near term 24-48 is critical for path/intensity. Storm surge is coming yes but no one can say what side NOLA will end up on which is huge when dealing with winds over 120mph.
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....and that's why you don't listen Twitter experts....only experts in trying to get noticed. What happens now has minimal effect, period. Post Cuba is what matters....intensity coming off island, speed of storm, orientation and strength of ridge...with the latter being the most critical. There is no doubt this is going to be a major cane'...and its going to hug as far east as the ridge lets it. Like my previous post said, the orientation is the key IMO. The more N to S orientation the ridge can take, the further east it will be able to hold. the storm will also be able to maintain a little more forward motion if the ridge isnt pumping over top. If its NW to SE oriented, the storm landfall will shift westward and slow down.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Well everyone on the Twitter world is saying the opposite. Everyone is saying the near term 24-48 is critical for path/intensity. Storm surge is coming yes but no one can say what side NOLA will end up on which is huge when dealing with winds over 120mph.
Click to expand...
It would be one thing if Ida were moving due East at this hour and sure sometimes storms “make their own tracks” but the steering pattern is pretty concrete at this time. I’m by no means ruling out some minor ticks east but other than that it’s a pretty accurate forecast to say that it’s going to be an LA landfall.
 
Stormsfury said:
Ida is right of NHC'S immediate short term plot..but that's a direct result of continued convective tugging... It also appears last pass showing FL winds >64kts on the SE and E quads... Also an "apparent" speed up between previous plots.

Possible hurricane by 2pm..
Likely to definitely one by 5pm..

Probably a major on Saturday...I believe Cat 4 by Saturday evening... Earlier than official plots..

I always overstate the necessity to prepare for a storm 2 CAT higher than official (better to overprepared than under).

Residents in the cone should be preparing as if Ida could reach Cat 5 status... Realistically... Ida will attain Cat 4 status well before landfall.. question is will near shore issues (dry air off land/interactions) have some disruptions just before landfall to stymie/weaken Ida some before landfall
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I agree, I think it will continue to get "tugged" a bit in the shorter term. NHC keeps shifting slowly east in the short term.
 
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This thing has blown up, yowie wowie
 
Never assume the middle of the cone is where landfall occurs. A hurricane watch is in place for other states in the official cone. You are wrong in saying major wish casting is needed when it’s their forecast not mine. I’m just outlining all possible scenarios.
 
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