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Tropical Hurricane Ida

Alert:...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Larose
- Golden Meadow
- Leeville

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 70 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning
until Monday morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind
greater than 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane
force or higher.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 7-11 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins Saturday evening
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 9 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme life-threatening storm surge
flooding greater than 9 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts should soon be brought to
completion before driving conditions become unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Widespread deep inundation from storm surge flooding.
Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away.
Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended
period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed. 9 feet or more of inundation is possible
outside the hurricane protection levee. Major overtopping
and life threatening inundation of the Larose to Golden
Meadow hurricane protection levee.
- Extreme shoreline erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many
lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 10-15 inches, with
locally higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, bayous, and
ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems
and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
 
I agree, I think it will continue to get "tugged" a bit in the shorter term. NHC keeps shifting slowly east in the short term.

The apparent "speed" up is just what I suspected...there's currently 2 centers, old center filling with the convective tugging forming its "true" center in the convective mass to the N (where now we have FL winds around 70kts.. and uncontaminated near 60kt SFMR winds..because of the jump, Ida will probably go east of that Isle or scrape landfall it on the Eastern Side.
recon_AF301-0409A-IDA_timeseries.png
 
Maybe. However, we've seen this many times where we make a big deal that a model initializes a system wrong (location and intensity). Often, the model is often still valid with the remainder of the run.
True still very valid Ida hits south/eastern Louisiana IMO. I just think Mississippi has seen a small increase in chances of a landfall there given everything going on.
 
True still very valid Ida hits south/eastern Louisiana IMO. I just think Mississippi has seen a small increase in chances of a landfall there given everything going on.

Even if Ida goes exactly where the plots say, Mississippi will still have significant storm surge issues with the flow out of the SE and S piling up water along that coastline...even if they never get into the inner eyewall...
 


For the love of all that's good . Please keep the track wish casting of this thread along with the responses to these comments . Examples below

1) I think the track might shift a little to the east due to the ridge being weaker than original shown - this is acceptable cause it's backed with a reason why

2) I think east shifts are coming - not acceptable and will be deleted without a sound reason as to why you feel that way

I will be deleting comments all weekend if anyone needs me


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Cmc doesn't change much from its 0z run and is the farthest east global model. Pretty interesting how so far the cmc/gfs/icon have stayed consistent with their previous runs and all 3 have a different landfall point
 
Definitely seeing good banding right now. The fact that it is organizing this quickly while still under SW shear is impressive and reminds me of Michael.
 
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