Cadi40
Member
In my opinion the NHC should’ve been coordinating this days ago with NOLA and vice verse.
I have seen the entire state of Florida turn on a dime in 36 ... it can be done unless someone has other motives ...The issue is there's not enough time to evacuate 1.2+ million people within 36ish hours. The logistics of evacuating a large metro city such as Nola are insanely complicated. A botched mandatory evacuation of New Orleans would be unfathomable.
Honestly at this stage where we’re just waiting on a big Convective blowup that rotates upshear and closes off any openings in the eyewall and warms the core, which will happen, especially when it goes back over water
Looks like just on the NW side for sure.I don't think we're waiting for after Cuba.. a huge hot towers exploded over Cuba as of 20 minutes ago...
Bad for surge and flooding rains … would prefer it smack and leave not much difference between 4/5 winds surge factor already massive … there’s not much getting around this being very bad
I guess we’re all just gonna have to pray that the investment this country has made the last 16 years on the levee system works. My concern is that the levees do hold up and do what they’re supposed to do, but that the combination of water piling up from the Gulf and freshwater draining from upstream forces water over the top of the levees.The issue is there's not enough time to evacuate 1.2+ million people within 36ish hours. The logistics of evacuating a large metro city such as Nola are insanely complicated. A botched mandatory evacuation of New Orleans would be unfathomable.
The issue is there's not enough time to evacuate 1.2+ million people within 36ish hours. The logistics of evacuating a large metro city such as Nola are insanely complicated. A botched mandatory evacuation of New Orleans would be unfathomable.
Looks like just on the NW side for sure.
It'll be a category 5. Don't see how it can't. It's blowing expectations out of the waterDown to 933mb at hr51 on the WRF.
It’s going over the widest point on the west tip of Cuba, so that will choke her a little bit, some food mountains too
This failure to activate counter-flow makes gridlock on the roads from evacuees far more likely. If the government tells people to stay put and ride it out, plenty will take that as the signal to get out ASAP.Its the right call, trying to evacuate New Orleans now could lead to a Hurricane Rita like scenario where you end up with gridlock and 10's of thousands of people stuck in traffic jams during a landfalling Cat 3-5..
I have a cousin who is a chef in New Orleans, she lives on the 17th floor of her apt building and has no personal transportation.....she would have to rely on public transportation to get out but I know she had a plan to leave with a co worker that had a vehicle if there was ever a need I hope she is doing it.
Let's hope Ida undergoes an EWRCI really hate to say it and this is by no means wishcasting, but just by seeing the minimal impact that Cuba has had on Ida, I truly don’t see anything stopping this system from becoming an extremely robust Cat 4 or 5. If I can chose one location in the continental US for Ida NOT to make landfall in, It’d be NOLA.
That's what my parents did for Katrina. They lived on some of the highest ground in St Bernard Parish and had never flooded even in Betsy. Until Katrina put 8' of water in the house that is.I agree, logistically speaking evacuating such a large metro in such short notice is going to be catastrophic with or without the use of contraflow traffic. For those in NOLA the best bet for them is to evacuate locally to higher ground if they have the means to do so. Those that reside in the lowest lying areas (ie Lower 9th ward) statistically speaking do not have the means to evacuate without help from agencies.
At this point, it's about the only thing that could help.Let's hope Ida undergoes an EWRC
Edit: Actually no, that would just increase the wind radius.
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I was more so speaking locally in the sense of traveling 30-60 minutes north to reach higher ground.That's what my parents did for Katrina. They lived on some of the highest ground in St Bernard Parish and had never flooded even in Betsy. Until Katrina put 8' of water in the house that is.
Looking at the wind distribution at landfall the only silver lining is that hurricane force winds look to only extend out 30 miles from the center right before landfall. That will be about half the size of Katrina of my memory is correct so we should still see a huge surge but not over as wide of an area of the coast.
The wind field is already explicitly expected to expand before landfall.. already has been mentioned in the NHC discussions...
Interesting. Wonder why that's not reflected in their forecast advisory?
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
Here ya go: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.as...R&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gifAnyone have a link to the Cuban radar site?
It won’t be but maybe another 30 minutes or so before the center is back over water. We’ll probably see an eye clear out in the next few hours.