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Tropical Hurricane Ida

blitzgunner said:
The issue is there's not enough time to evacuate 1.2+ million people within 36ish hours. The logistics of evacuating a large metro city such as Nola are insanely complicated. A botched mandatory evacuation of New Orleans would be unfathomable.
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I have seen the entire state of Florida turn on a dime in 36 ... it can be done unless someone has other motives ...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Honestly at this stage where we’re just waiting on a big Convective blowup that rotates upshear and closes off any openings in the eyewall and warms the core, which will happen, especially when it goes back over water
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I don't think we're waiting for after Cuba.. a huge hot towers exploded over Cuba as of 20 minutes ago...
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Bad for surge and flooding rains … would prefer it smack and leave not much difference between 4/5 winds surge factor already massive … there’s not much getting around this being very bad
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Agreed, especially with the flooding rains, unless it unexpectedly weakens dramatically like Lili did in 2002. Lili didn't weaken due to slowing down since it only slowed a little, but it did start to weaken once it went over the cooler water of Isadore's wake along with shear increases and drier air working in. That one weakened from a cat 4 to a cat 1 quickly, which wasn't forecasted. Unfortunately, we're in late August rather than early October. Thus, a dramatic weakening like that is highly unlikely even if it slows considerably.
 
blitzgunner said:
The issue is there's not enough time to evacuate 1.2+ million people within 36ish hours. The logistics of evacuating a large metro city such as Nola are insanely complicated. A botched mandatory evacuation of New Orleans would be unfathomable.
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I guess we’re all just gonna have to pray that the investment this country has made the last 16 years on the levee system works. My concern is that the levees do hold up and do what they’re supposed to do, but that the combination of water piling up from the Gulf and freshwater draining from upstream forces water over the top of the levees.
 
blitzgunner said:
The issue is there's not enough time to evacuate 1.2+ million people within 36ish hours. The logistics of evacuating a large metro city such as Nola are insanely complicated. A botched mandatory evacuation of New Orleans would be unfathomable.
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Its the right call, trying to evacuate New Orleans now could lead to a Hurricane Rita like scenario where you end up with gridlock and 10's of thousands of people stuck in traffic jams during a landfalling Cat 3-5..

I have a cousin who is a chef in New Orleans, she lives on the 17th floor of her apt building and has no personal transportation.....she would have to rely on public transportation to get out but I know she had a plan to leave with a co worker that had a vehicle if there was ever a need I hope she is doing it.
 
000
WTNT64 KNHC 272324
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA MAKES LANDFALL IN PINAR DEL RIO CUBA...

Satellite images, radar data from Cuba, and data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters indicate that Ida has made landfall in the Cuban
province of Pinar Del Rio, about 20 miles (30 km) east of La
Coloma. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 80 mph (130
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 725 PM EDT...2325 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
I agree, logistically speaking evacuating such a large metro in such short notice is going to be catastrophic with or without the use of contraflow traffic. For those in NOLA the best bet for them is to evacuate locally to higher ground if they have the means to do so. Those that reside in the lowest lying areas (ie Lower 9th ward) statistically speaking do not have the means to evacuate without help from agencies.
 
I really hate to say it and this is by no means wishcasting, but just by seeing the minimal impact that Cuba has had on Ida, I truly don’t see anything stopping this system from becoming an extremely robust Cat 4 or 5. If I can chose one location in the continental US for Ida NOT to make landfall in, It’d be NOLA.
 
Imho, if there is no mandatory evacuation of NO, and if this does what we think it's going to do, we are going to see a large loss of life.

The models have underperformed on it's strengthening so far, and I see no reason
( so far ) to believe this won't continue to overperform.
 
Downeastnc said:
Its the right call, trying to evacuate New Orleans now could lead to a Hurricane Rita like scenario where you end up with gridlock and 10's of thousands of people stuck in traffic jams during a landfalling Cat 3-5..

I have a cousin who is a chef in New Orleans, she lives on the 17th floor of her apt building and has no personal transportation.....she would have to rely on public transportation to get out but I know she had a plan to leave with a co worker that had a vehicle if there was ever a need I hope she is doing it.
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This failure to activate counter-flow makes gridlock on the roads from evacuees far more likely. If the government tells people to stay put and ride it out, plenty will take that as the signal to get out ASAP.

On the other hand, this will make chasing the storm easier. :eek:
 
Looking at the wind distribution at landfall the only silver lining is that hurricane force winds look to only extend out 30 miles from the center right before landfall. That will be about half the size of Katrina of my memory is correct so we should still see a huge surge but not over as wide of an area of the coast.
 
Cadi40 said:
I really hate to say it and this is by no means wishcasting, but just by seeing the minimal impact that Cuba has had on Ida, I truly don’t see anything stopping this system from becoming an extremely robust Cat 4 or 5. If I can chose one location in the continental US for Ida NOT to make landfall in, It’d be NOLA.
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Let's hope Ida undergoes an EWRC

Edit: Actually no, that would just increase the wind radius.
Sent from my LM-Q730 using Tapatalk
 
Poor New Orleans, what a joke this city has always been on how it was built, this could be its demise.
 
Cadi40 said:
I agree, logistically speaking evacuating such a large metro in such short notice is going to be catastrophic with or without the use of contraflow traffic. For those in NOLA the best bet for them is to evacuate locally to higher ground if they have the means to do so. Those that reside in the lowest lying areas (ie Lower 9th ward) statistically speaking do not have the means to evacuate without help from agencies.
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That's what my parents did for Katrina. They lived on some of the highest ground in St Bernard Parish and had never flooded even in Betsy. Until Katrina put 8' of water in the house that is.
 
Shaggy said:
Looking at the wind distribution at landfall the only silver lining is that hurricane force winds look to only extend out 30 miles from the center right before landfall. That will be about half the size of Katrina of my memory is correct so we should still see a huge surge but not over as wide of an area of the coast.
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The wind field is already explicitly expected to expand before landfall.. already has been mentioned in the NHC discussions...
 
Stormsfury said:
The wind field is already explicitly expected to expand before landfall.. already has been mentioned in the NHC discussions...
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Interesting. Wonder why that's not reflected in their forecast advisory?



FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
 
Shaggy said:
Interesting. Wonder why that's not reflected in their forecast advisory?



FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
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That's odd. Check back thru the discussion archives and there were several that discussed a wind field expansion
 
Even though the projected landfall location of Ida seems to be a good bit west of where Katrina struck, it actually puts NOLA in a worse position because of the counter clockwise nature of a Hurricane.
 
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