I think recon needs to go east
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Tropical Hurricane Ida
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
It will definitely cross a portion of Cuba but given that the terrain is flat, it will spend little time over land and the fact that this storm has a large circulation and a very impressive large upper level high developing over it creating excellent outflow I would not expect it to slow the intensification down.
Not sure I was expecting the center there
At this point I wouldn’t look at global s in regards to exact pressure … they usually end up throwing out higher storm pressures when in reality the storm is deeper… I would look more towards the Hurricane models for more specific trends in intensity in the future .. at this point all the globals do is assure us that a Hurricane will be in a very good environment in the Gulf headed towards the gulf coast
Brent
Member
Guess Ida will have to wait
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM...
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM...
The cone is a touch east of the 11 AM FWIW.
I think they might find something NE of there....IF they don't, I think 1 of 2 things are going to happen..... This will stay weak, maybe a TS at best until it crosses Cuba, OR....this will form NE (under the deep convection plume) (closer to Cuba) and can strengthen more.
Shaggy
Member
That's the notion I was spit balling earlier today and the track ramifications if it does.
Brent
Member
Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM...
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM...
HSVweather
Member
Brent
Member
Disaster for New Orleans on the GFS
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Kind've sloppy buzzsaw by gfs. I imagine it'll be more symmetric than this
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I might get yelled at by some, lol....but this thing looks sloppy at best. Recon suggests a very weak, maybe lopsided, or stretched LLC. I would think it needs to either re-locate or this will be a sloppy mess heading for Cuba.
accu35
Member
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Although we might be able to conclude that .. we could look for a hopeful possibility that maybe that shear coming off of the hurricane in the Pacific may help us out by shearing off center a bit of the convection making IDA have to try harder to maintain a hot look … could keep her at a manageable level of cat 3 even though that it still bad
Henry2326
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It might be sloppy now, but we have seen tropical systems explode quickly the past few years.
I agree, and I expect it to, but until it crosses Cuba...To many negative factors I think (short term) until it locates that center eastward or the SW shear backs off.
SimeonNC
Member
This may be a banter-ish post but I feel like there might not be enough time for it to intensify that much. The NHC has the storm making landfall by Sunday afternoon and unless RI happens, it might not have time to become much stronger than a Cat 1 or maybe a Cat 2.