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Tropical Hurricane Ida

LOUISIANA EVACUATIONS #Ida —
Voluntary for Orleans Parish, Mandatory Outside of Levee System (including Irish Bayou, Venetian Isles, + Lake Catherine)
Mandatory of Plaquemines Parish (East Bank, West Bank of Plaquemines Parish) & Voluntary Oakville to Phillips 66 Refinery.
 
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Nerman said:
LOUISIANA EVACUATIONS #Ida —
Voluntary for Orleans Parish, Mandatory Outside of Levee System (including Irish Bayou, Venetian Isles, + Lake Catherine)
Mandatory of Plaquemines Parish (East Bank, West Bank of Plaquemines Parish) & Voluntary Oakville to Phillips 66 Refinery.
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You would have to tie me down to be sitting in NO this weekend.
 
Zander98al said:
Geez Louise. That's in the 930s looking at a category 5 in that range

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Just extrapolating and using how the hurricane models did with Michael would suggest Cat 5 landfall is a definite possibility. The only thing that may prevent that if it goes bonkers too early and ERCs and the broadening of wind fields prevent it. Still looking at a formidable Cat 3 or Cat 4.
 
Sometimes it’s best to post info more than once for some viewers who may not go back and read every post .. it’s just good to constantly stay informed with a rapidly changing situation
 
Zander98al said:
I edited my post. You were right. I though it starts in the 930s

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No problem. Cat 5 might be a possibility, though. The models keep showing it stronger each run.
 
ForsythSnow said:
For a weak hurricane I have to say Ida looks impressive right now. A relatively healthy CDO for now.
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yeah you know how these things are though, wind speeds lag a little, shoot it's been stronger on every Recon pass.... that is saying something
 
I'm beginning to think models are a good bit undone. I think highly unlikely this thing does not make landfall as a category 4 or 5. And right now I feel firmly a 5. Is the likeliest. Too much energy.

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Probably going to hit as a Cat 5, at least a 4. Upper levels look great and SSTs are rocket fuel. Should develop good outflow channels and not have to contend with much in the way of dry air. Barring an ERC, it's going to be bad. And it's going to be piling up a lot of water.
 
Looks like she took another gulp of dry air evident by some OFB's. Theres a faint one in that circle on the south side.

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I wouldn’t go on to say this is making a CAT 5 landfall … those are rare for a reason .. not many storms have the ability to maintain that kind of strength for so long .. it takes absolute perfect conditions to be able to sustain that type of vertically stacked convection for a sustained time … I could also see an eye wall replacement cycle possibly helping us out in hampering it from staying CAT 5 all the way until landfall … although we know our luck hasn’t been great as of recently in terms of storms rapidly intensifying all the way to landfall .. doesn’t mean it will happen every time … regardless of the category this will impact the lives of very many people in a very significant and unheard of way.. it’s time to focus on impacts and conveying those impacts to those in the path!
 
People from just west of New Orleans to Mobile should watch this very carefully. It is likely to follow the boundary of the anticyclone which currently predicts a slight weakening in the eastern edge after day 2 which would allow it to come further east than the current model tracks. Start praying for New Orleans
 
What is the timetable for this landfall? I will probably get sent down with our REDS Team if it's this bad
 
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