Henry2326
Member
Sunday to Monday.What is the timetable for this landfall? I will probably get sent down with our REDS Team if it's this bad
Sunday to Monday.What is the timetable for this landfall? I will probably get sent down with our REDS Team if it's this bad
Weather going to deteriorate quickly Sunday and probably LF Sunday night and it's going to be this bad I'm afraidWhat is the timetable for this landfall? I will probably get sent down with our REDS Team if it's this bad
Holy cow that thing is hauling, I better make a call....Thanks for the info!Sunday to Monday.
Yup the central and eastern GOM will be primed and ready.Yeah theres supposed to be an anticyclone follow it to the coast which is the perfect setup to bomb it vents it and keeps shear at bay
Absolutely no way to make that statement with any confidence even as a seasoned Met…let alone a Tweeter expert followerUnlikely but worst side will likely be NOLA east. West side usually weaker.
Last IR frame shows what might be some new storm activity on the N and S sides of the storm. Have to see.For now intensification is on hold with the interaction with Cuba … once we see that first blow up post Cuba … good luck everyone because I’m sure we are about to witness something spectacular on satellite imagery
It's going over very low terrain flat areas. So it shouldn't interact a while lot with the land I would think.Last IR frame shows what might be some new storm activity on the N and S sides of the storm. Have to see.
History likes to repeat itself
If it gets to a strong 4/5, I don’t see anything that would knock it down to a 2 before landfall. Based on timing, an ERC could knock it down to a 3. That said, I completely agree with you that any weakening prior to landfall doesn’t take away the surge. I would guess many areas are looking at 15-20 ft storm surge, which would put many areas well inland underwater. As for New Orleans, this may be the worst possible scenario… the city is just to the right of the center with winds pushing straight at the city for at least 24 hours.IMO Ida will be one of those storms that presents a CAT 5 storm surge but winds could downgrade to a CAT 2 right at landfall. This is why the CAT system is flawed IMO and has been discussed a lot since Katrina. Get out of Louisiana. Water will build and funnel whether it’s CAT2 to CAT5 it will NOT have time to lessen the impacts of storm surge. GET OUT NOW
I have fallen behind reading all the posts, but a lot of discussion of the storm going east or west of NO. Obviously if the storm is west of NO, that is very bad as the surge and worst of the wind potentially can be devastating.
However, correct me if I am wrong (and I’m sure someone will) Katrina, while very close to NO, was actually slightly east of NO and it was the heavy rain, coupled with wind coming from the N and NE which caused the levees to fail which flooded that bowl New Orleans sits in and created the major issues … more so than the actual eye wall … which nailed Biloxi and surrounding areas.
Either way, this is a dangerous storm and I pray people there take it seriously. My point is if the storm takes a similar path to Katrina AND the levees hold this time, NO will come out relatively ok compared to Katrina. (If someone has said the same thing, please forgive me!)
There was significant surge into NO from the Gulf, but that did recede as eye passed just to the east and the winds turned from the north. However that was when many levees that blocked Lake Pontchatrain failed and inundated areas that were below the level of the lake.I have fallen behind reading all the posts, but a lot of discussion of the storm going east or west of NO. Obviously if the storm is west of NO, that is very bad as the surge and worst of the wind potentially can be devastating.
However, correct me if I am wrong (and I’m sure someone will) Katrina, while very close to NO, was actually slightly east of NO and it was the heavy rain, coupled with wind coming from the N and NE which caused the levees to fail which flooded that bowl New Orleans sits in and created the major issues … more so than the actual eye wall … which nailed Biloxi and surrounding areas.
Either way, this is a dangerous storm and I pray people there take it seriously. My point is if the storm takes a similar path to Katrina AND the levees hold this time, NO will come out relatively ok compared to Katrina. (If someone has said the same thing, please forgive me!)
I'm so used to a delay in warnings thst this actually surprised me although I agree with it 100%.140 mph forecast!
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from east of Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border
including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf
coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the coast
of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
View attachment 89382
This is definitely not the typical lead time that we seem to see nowadays.I'm so used to a delay in warnings thst this actually surprised me although I agree with it 100%.
Another factor is when the turn to the north takes place. If it takes place early like the EURO shows then you have the eyeball hitting the coast at a 90 degree angle, which only adds to the surge impacts.The amount of weakening as it approaches the coast is dependent on a couple of factors. If it slows down as it nears landfall, then the interaction will water a little cooler and much shallower than at peak intensity will weaken it some. However if it makes a beeline at 15-20+mph there will not be much weakening as it hits the shallower water on the coast line. Also the slower it goes as landfall approaches, the more dry air can get pulled into the system. Lots of factors in play here from the track, peak intensity and speed of the storm
even with interaction on cuba it doesn't seem to be slowing development down much. Not a good sign if you want weaker impacts. We'll prob see the next phase of RI tomorrow and an eye develop then as it clears the less favorable areas and hits the prime area for growth.
I'm so used to a delay in warnings thst this actually surprised me although I agree with it 100%.
Some of the newer modeling is trying to weaken the ridge earlier and move it east a tad.This ain't good. East shift
View attachment 89388
Some of the newer modeling is trying to weaken the ridge earlier and move it east a tad.
I agree. I personally don’t see the landfall shifting east of New Orleans, but I do think that we could see a sharper turn to the NE and east once once inland.A trend to watch. We may not know the full extent of the east shift till tomorrow sometime. Especially as ida moves inland
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