Because by being faster, it keeps a much more easterly component vs turning more northerly.wouldnt slightly faster mean a slight jump ? Why would there be a big jump, if its only slightly faster ?
Because by being faster, it keeps a much more easterly component vs turning more northerly.wouldnt slightly faster mean a slight jump ? Why would there be a big jump, if its only slightly faster ?
That's the 8 PM graphic.View attachment 122220
The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Still the 8pm graphic. still waiting on the 11pm graphic update.View attachment 122220
The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
It’s sped up in the model to the point that the trough doesn’t leave it behind. Also the trough is somewhat deeper and sharper which is why you see it get pushed back NW into the SC once it crosses FL.wouldnt slightly faster mean a slight jump ? Why would there be a big jump, if its only slightly faster ?
slower so id imagine a tighter run up the coast and less re-strengtheningIcon is slower and SW through 57 but we will see if it continues a track of the 18z out to sea and a 2nd LF in SC or if it starts that turn to the N
Especially because it stalls offshore near Tampa. That's just not good at all.Right over Tampa at 110 mph ? this would be the worst case scenario for them View attachment 122222
You’re really going to see it start deepening now and with a more easterly track this thing may not weaken nearly as much on approach. A cat 4 right offshore and LF as a Cat 3 is a real possibility right now around Tampa.no longer concentric eyewalls. One consolidated circular closed 32 NM wide eye. (965mb)
F. CLOSED
G. C32
I’m not sure when the last time that a hurricane made landfall in GA…it’s obviously rare due to the shape of the coastline, but this would certainly be a rare track2nd LF in Savannah as potentially a cat 1 again. Huge rainfall all over SC, NC, Georgia. This track would really increase the winds even more over our area.
Wait, how does this work? Friction from land helping consolidate, I’m interested in that….(Sorry if banter).I highly doubt you see any weakening over that small portion of Cuba. If anything the friction from land looks to be helping consolidated the eyewall and form the eye now.
Agreed and this is why I would not be suprised at all if the rain spread much further north in advance than what models are showing now. Remember what the radar looked like when Floyd’s eye was still east of Jacksonville, there was rain spread all the way up the east coast into New EnglandIf you want to see just how serious the rainfall with this thing is going to get. Just look at the current radar over Florida. Huge bands already rolling in from the interaction between Ian and the stalled front over central Florida. This trough is serious business and you can bet there’s going to be some big totals all along that from as it moves north.
Are we really expecting a 1035mb high over NY in September?Wouldn't the GFS being weaker than reality miscalculate speed/direction though?
Are we really expecting a 1035mb high over NY in September?
Probably not that much. The GFS is still seeing it as a deep system.Wouldn't the GFS being weaker than reality miscalculate speed/direction though?