Well dang lol. Seems models are struggling as steering currents are collapsing upon approach, could be crawling or just drifting idk. Seems we're getting a spread in tracks once again around D3-5
That aligns with NHC's comment of uncertainty in dy 3 to 5.Well dang lol. Seems models are struggling as steering currents are collapsing upon approach, could be crawling or just drifting idk. Seems we're getting a spread in tracks once again around D3-5
That's Fort Myers to Port Charlotte. Tampa Bay is the northern bay and would be on the N and W side with winds emptying the bay.Yep.....there is some indication in the spaghetti models of some movement toward the east coast of FL.
This 00z ICON model is devastating for Tampa Bay. Front and East quadrant into the bay...... geez
2nd LF in SC.
View attachment 122121
genuinely baffled on how the 12z models will run. shift east? shift west? i don't know. i have absolutely no read. i spent 20 minutes trying to find the synoptic difference on why the icon is doing what it's doing and didn't see it. steering based on vibes. good luck.
Wont be surprised at all if it ends up in the panhandle....trends today should be telling....and so far, its west.Keep in mind it only runs out to 72 hrs, while it is west of it's previous track, it is heading N/NNE and would probably still end up in the big bend area of Fl. Just didn't want anyone to read that west shift as it heading towards Destin or something that far west.
And it very well might end up in Destin...Wont be surprised at all if it ends up in the panhandle....trends today should be telling....and so far, its west.
WOW.....exactly what I have been saying for days. This thing is going to miss every possible feature to get it to move east......it may sit in the gulf for days just meandering around.
It was little more than breezy, it destroyed my neighborhoodWhat system was that last year (Or two ago) that models kept inching west and west, and was progged to be a direct hit on NO. And It did, but it was just a naked swirl of low pressure and nothing more than a breezy day.
Wondering.
Honestly the UK has probably been the most consistent model the last couple days.I just remember when the ukie powned all the other models with Florence which was very weak steering.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
genuinely baffled on how the 12z models will run. shift east? shift west? i don't know. i have absolutely no read. i spent 20 minutes trying to find the synoptic difference on why the icon is doing what it's doing and didn't see it. steering based on vibes. good luck.
I remember.....Euro had it going against the gulf stream to Charleston. City shut down....not even a breeze or drop of water.I just remember when the ukie powned all the other models with Florence which was very weak steering.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If this verified! Any guess on the implications for Ft Myers? I have a YOUNG daughter working/living in the historic district / riverwalk area. Sorry if this is banter! Worried mom!That's Fort Myers to Port Charlotte. Tampa Bay is the northern bay and would be on the N and W side with winds emptying the bay.
View attachment 122126
I remember.....Euro had it going against the gulf stream to Charleston. City shut down....not even a breeze or drop of water.
I was in Goose Creek too. Thanks for the correction.Have to correct you on that. We got winds and a light drizzle. A very cool 3 days with breezy, almost wedge like conditions lol
my guess is front orientation- the northeasterlies from the front are going to influence track. icon is faster (so less time expose to northeasterlies) and nam has the front orientation a little more n-s (so the surface winds have less of an easterly component)Icon seems to be a tick quicker with Ian and a touch slower with the longwave..or maybe putting too much stock in steering from the large ridge out west. It's wonky, not impossible, but wonky
Yep just saw that. And it’s still raining in these frames so that’s interestingI just realized the ICON wasn't exactly an outlier, the Ukie came inland south of Tampa, basically ran up the peninsula, exited briefly off the NE part of Fl and 2nd LF up the coast as very weak system but tons of rain. Curious to see if it shifts back west with it's 12z run. It and the Euro have diverged a little bit.
![]()
![]()
Don't get all fussy, it wasn't Zeta.It was little more than breezy, it destroyed my neighborhood
If this verified! Any guess on the implications for Ft Myers? I have a YOUNG daughter working/living in the historic district / riverwalk area. Sorry if this is banter! Worried mom
That’s fine, but it was mentioned that it was Zeta. No worriesDon't get all fussy, it wasn't Zeta.
It was Marco.
![]()
To my eyes, it appears that some Upper to Mid-Level Sheer is inserting dry air into the system, because Ian is sitting on the N and NW side of the Upper Level Anticyclone. Thus, dry air is circling into the system. I Imagine this is the reason Ian isn't deepening.
my guess is front orientation- the northeasterlies from the front are going to influence track. icon is faster (so less time expose to northeasterlies) and nam has the front orientation a little more n-s (so the surface winds have less of an easterly component)
Coming up and around the main cayman island area too. In theory, should filter out by tonight, but we shall see
NHC now on the eastern side of EPS guidance....watch for them to adjust to the west at some point today, especially if the GFS comes in west as well.
That's not how they roll. They are very slow to make major adjustments especially to the GFS or Euro.NHC now on the eastern side of EPS guidance....watch for them to adjust to the west at some point today, especially if the GFS comes in west as well.
On its way to possibly still shooting the gap, or just barely touching the western tip of Cuba, if that is extrapolated out.
That's not how they roll. They are very slow to make major adjustments especially to the GFS or Euro.
I'm still wondering if this might happen. I know UK, ICON and HMON aren't the most relied on models for most forecasters but stranger things have happened before.06z HMON - LF in Tampa, crosses FL, and LF in SC.
So now we have UK, Icon, and HMON with this crossing FL thing.
View attachment 122127