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Tropical Hurricane Ian

98L is currently on the tour of the South American coastline. It appears to be somewhere between I think those are the ABC islands down there around 10°N, 62°W.
 
sfcwind_mslp.caribbean.png

Euro has it hitting in south Florida.
 
Such delicate timing whether it can leak far enough east like the Euro is showing.

ecmwf-deterministic-conuswide-z500_anom-4409600.png
 
I’ll tell you what the environment in the Caribbean if something does end up forming is about as good as it gets for tropical cyclones.. I expect rapid strengthening with this especially cause models want to develop this as a very small system initially.. this also favors rapid strengthening. We will get some very cool SAT photos in the coming week if we can get a low to form and move into this environment.
 
Likely going to be between the GFS and EURO which makes somewhere between apalachicola and Tampa the most likely landfall location as of today
 
Just catching up on the model runs today and right now I think some things are becoming evident. First is to give the slower developing solutions some attention simply because the outflow from Fiona leaving dry air behind could hinder development for the next 48 hrs… slower development could allow it go further west like the GFS is showing. Second there definitely looks to be a limit to how far west this goes as even ensemble members that go into Yucatán still have turn sharp towards the north and then northeast. I still think the overall H5 screams for the eastern Gulf coast, most likely the Panhandle down to Tampa for a landfall and then up through the eastern seaboard.
 
Wonder why the Euro showing a bend back west after landfall? Whenever I see these happen it reminds me of other storms that done that before landfall.
 
Capture more or less with the ULL/trough over the Midwest.
Thanks!! I seen this before where the bend starts happening sooner before landfall If you notice CMC done that on todays 12z run. Had it going in the eastern gulf then bends west into La/Ms gulf coast. Something to watch as eps and gefs is hinting at
 
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