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Tropical Hurricane Ian

100mb difference between the departing high and the hurricane. Would be a long duration gradient wind event for much of the EC. Precip go to LOT as the trough digs in and attempts to phase, coastal trough gets pulled to near the foot of the apps so the tornado threat would extend well north. As @metwannabe said the PRE looks good with the jet streak across the mid Atlantic and would lead to a long duration rain event as well, likely focused along the retreating coastal trough. This would be a very high impact event for a lot. That said the 12z cmc is well west and the 12z icon is slow so a lot is still on the table
 
SD said:
100mb difference between the departing high and the hurricane. Would be a long duration gradient wind event for much of the EC. Precip go to LOT as the trough digs in and attempts to phase, coastal trough gets pulled to near the foot of the apps so the tornado threat would extend well north. As @metwannabe said the PRE looks good with the jet streak across the mid Atlantic and would lead to a long duration rain event as well, likely focused along the retreating coastal trough. This would be a very high impact event for a lot. That said the 12z cmc is well west and the 12z icon is slow so a lot is still on the table
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Yeah, CMC almost into Central America, so far south trough has no effect on it.... obviously the longer it takes to develop the more south and eventual west the track. CMC very slow with development and this thing looks like a mess atm
 
SD said:
100mb difference between the departing high and the hurricane. Would be a long duration gradient wind event for much of the EC. Precip go to LOT as the trough digs in and attempts to phase, coastal trough gets pulled to near the foot of the apps so the tornado threat would extend well north. As @metwannabe said the PRE looks good with the jet streak across the mid Atlantic and would lead to a long duration rain event as well, likely focused along the retreating coastal trough. This would be a very high impact event for a lot. That said the 12z cmc is well west and the 12z icon is slow so a lot is still on the table
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Its scooting as well GFS has it go from landfall in FL to MD in 24 hrs....
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah, CMC almost into Central America, so far south trough has no effect on it.... obviously the longer it takes to develop the more south and eventual west the track. CMC very slow with development and this thing looks like a mess atm
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There is really a lot to unpack with it and it's probably a little more muddy than a system that is alone over the open Atlantic. Unconsolidated vorticity, shear from fiona, interaction with south America are all going to be issues.
 
SD said:
There is really a lot to unpack with it and it's probably a little more muddy than a system that is alone over the open Atlantic. Unconsolidated vorticity, shear from fiona, interaction with south America are all going to be issues.
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Man you aren't kidding, when you run the sat loop you can easily see the outflow from Friona causing significant shear on the north side, very muddy lol
 
SD said:
There is really a lot to unpack with it and it's probably a little more muddy than a system that is alone over the open Atlantic. Unconsolidated vorticity, shear from fiona, interaction with south America are all going to be issues.
Click to expand...

Yeah where that NE turn happens is gonna be huge......100 miles further east and you, me and the rest of the central and eastern NC folks got issues, 100 miles further west and we wont even get rain....the real takeaway though is at least for now a clean miss to the east seems least likely.....
 
So the 12z gfs shows slow development this run like the cmc? If that’s the case and we get a slower developing system then we could see maybe and eventually west track then what’s been shown now?
 
accu35 said:
So the 12z gfs shows slow development this run like the cmc? If that’s the case and we get a slower developing system then we could see maybe and eventually west track then what’s been shown now?
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Most of the 12z gefs are east of the op and jumping across FL and running the EC. Slower development isn't going to be a 1:1 correlation with more west here. We are probably 3-4 days away from this clearing up unless it just goes crazy with organization over the next 24-48 and we get a trackable center/vortex
 
iGRXY said:
Incoming troughs make this the most likely outcome. The upstate and western and central NC would get rocked in that setup.
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I agree. The H5 set up just looks to be an eastern Gulf coast threat and then it riding inland up the east coast. The big question in that scenario would be how much trough interaction there is as it’s approaching land and how far out ahead of the storm heavy rains fall. There have been some impressive PRE events out ahead of storms to make landfall in that area. Both Opal in 1995 and Michael in 2018 are good examples
 
SD said:
Most of the 12z gefs are east of the op and jumping across FL and running the EC. Slower development isn't going to be a 1:1 correlation with more west here. We are probably 3-4 days away from this clearing up unless it just goes crazy with organization over the next 24-48 and we get a trackable center/vortex
Click to expand...
Looks like the tightest spin right now is around 10N and 55.5W?
 
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