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Tropical Hurricane Ian

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More stronger and further west.
 
928 - Probably a cat 4 at that pressure.

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Brent said:
If there's any good news on the GFS it starts to weaken before landfall but I don't know if I trust that at this range
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The Euro does the same thing though but like you said it is 8-9 days out.
 
Ya that’s the path to nail me down here in FL. That would also probably be a strengthening hurricane to landfall. Then to destroy the Carolina’s.
 
Henry2326 said:
And it's at 953, which is close to the same area that GFS blows up.....
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I’d definitely lean toward the GFS intensity over the Euro in the Caribbean. That upper level environment looks perfect on both models. A huge blow up there and then a quick hook into southern Florida is about worst case.
 
I believe you could argue it's interaction with the South American coastline might help this spin up, not too mention shear eventually abating, but still that land interaction helping systems tightening up isn't uncommon
 
metwannabe said:
A little "cleaner" image, pretty solid this far out no?

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I love that track right into nc . Hooks south Florida then intensifies again and hits us ? Mean isn’t far off from it . I’ll take it . Also, right behind it in the Cape Verde area is another threat . Could be a double whammy like 99. Omg ! Weenie weenie weenie !
 
Lickwx said:
I love that track right into nc . Hooks south Florida then intensifies again and hits us ? Mean isn’t far off from it . I’ll take it . Also, right behind it in the Cape Verde area is another threat . Could be a double whammy like 99. Omg ! Weenie weenie weenie !
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You sound strangely eager for disaster in Florida. I know you like rain but stick with your frontal boundary’s and stop “liking landfalling hurricanes” This is just disgusting. Sorry for being “that guy” but calm down. On to more important matters.

That frontal boundary looks to cause the storm to move further west and north toward the panhandle and Alabama. Having Fiona in Canada messes with the scheme of the westerlies.
 
Lickwx said:
I love that track right into nc . Hooks south Florida then intensifies again and hits us ? Mean isn’t far off from it . I’ll take it . Also, right behind it in the Cape Verde area is another threat . Could be a double whammy like 99. Omg ! Weenie weenie weenie !
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If it crosses FL and recurred north into NC like that, I doubt it will reintensify very much before hitting NC again. LR models always show the weenie reintensification solutions. Reality is usually a bit different. Systems usually take a good while to come back and end up rolling ashore a rag-tag Cat 1 mess.
 
Rain Cold said:
If it crosses FL and recurred north into NC like that, I doubt it will reintensify very much before hitting NC again. LR models always show the weenie reintensification solutions. Reality is usually a bit different. Systems usually take a good while to come back and end up rolling ashore a rag-tag Cat 1 mess.
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I’m skeptical of those winds as well. Unless it’s picked up by a front and it’s moving 50-60MPH, they never pan out and they degrade quickly.
 
wxdaniel said:
You sound strangely eager for disaster in Florida. I know you like rain but stick with your frontal boundary’s and stop “liking landfalling hurricanes” This is just disgusting. Sorry for being “that guy” but calm down. On to more important matters.

That frontal boundary looks to cause the storm to move further west and north toward the panhandle and Alabama. Having Fiona in Canada messes with the scheme of the westerlies.
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Son stop telling people what to like and what not to like. My like has 0 impact on reality . How about we stop being self righteous ? Would be great.
 
Rain Cold said:
If it crosses FL and recurred north into NC like that, I doubt it will reintensify very much before hitting NC again. LR models always show the weenie reintensification solutions. Reality is usually a bit different. Systems usually take a good while to come back and end up rolling ashore a rag-tag Cat 1 mess.
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Yeah, the euro has the phase though which turns it into a giant strung out hybrid . Which in a way is worse as winds spread out from center more .
 
Lickwx said:
Yeah, the euro has the phase though which turns it into a giant strung out hybrid . Which in a way is worse as winds spread out from center more .
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If it pulls a michael, thats a whole nother thing for sure. I had the honor of being outside when that squall line came through.
 
Rain Cold said:
If it crosses FL and recurred north into NC like that, I doubt it will reintensify very much before hitting NC again. LR models always show the weenie reintensification solutions. Reality is usually a bit different. Systems usually take a good while to come back and end up rolling ashore a rag-tag Cat 1 mess.
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Yeah but I never turn my back on the gulf stream. It can do some crazy things to storms. Bertha exploded when she hit it with good conditions.

That's of course assuming the euro track would actually happen
 
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