Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Rain Cold]

Incoming troughs make this the most likely outcome. The upstate and western and central NC would get rocked in that setup.

I kind of agree. I think it may end up a little farther west, though. We've been in a pattern of repeating ridging building in over the SE. That may not happen so vigorously this time, but I'm giving that a little more weight right now. Maybe landfall western panhandle and then up through AL and TN, then kicked right by an incoming trough.

 

[Snowfan]

12z Euro has a high end Cat 1 into the western Florida pensunla.

 

[SD]

?

 

[jrips27]

 

[Snowfan]

HWRF/HMON are further west of the Euro/GFS.

 

[Brent]

Some of the model runs with this storm ? Tampa is a dreaded hurricane scenario

 

[weatherfide]

Some of the model runs with this storm ? Tampa is a dreaded hurricane scenario View attachment 121641

It's only a Cat 1, though... It's not a major on the Euro. It appears to struggle with intensification, but it's way too early for those details.

 

[iGRXY]

Ughhhh a 957 mb hurricane is not a cat 1….. you’re pushing major hurricane at that point and as we’ve seen for better part of half a decade, these models and the NHC really struggle with intensity has hurricanes have done the opposite and gotten stronger the closer they approach the coast.

 

[severestorm]

Keep in mind, some structures are regulated to withstand hurricane force winds.

 

[Brent]

Ughhhh a 957 mb hurricane is not a cat 1….. you’re pushing major hurricane at that point and as we’ve seen for better part of half a decade, these models and the NHC really struggle with intensity has hurricanes have done the opposite and gotten stronger the closer they approach the coast.

Yeah and never look at the globals for intensity either

 

[Henry2326]

Speaks for itself....

 

[deltadog03]

Speaks for itself....

View attachment 121642

Post of the day IMHO

 

[deltadog03]

Like Shane said. A very interesting situation developing. Lots of potential possibilities here. If it makes it too the GOM I woukd
Favor the central and eastern GOM at this moment***. Major bust potential and nada to central Mexico. We shall see.
I could see a major in the GOM

 

[Itryatgolf]

Be vigilant for the next week with this system. It has potential to become a monstrous hurricane. Drought busting for some also imo

 

[Brent]

Yeah the ceiling is definitely high here. Nearly every track near the US is a major hurricane

 

[deltadog03]

Yeah the ceiling is definitely high here. Nearly every track near the US is a major hurricane View attachment 121643

Some tracks to the west possible for sure, but EPS is firing warning shots for sure

 

[Tarheel1]

This one is going into the gulf , and will get shunted west into Mexico! The trough will be weaker than modeled and miss it, it’ll limp West, imo

 

[Brent]

Almost certainly gonna be named Hermine. One name off the infamous I list ?

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Yeah the ceiling is definitely high here. Nearly every track near the US is a major hurricane View attachment 121643

What I can see from EPS Is the weaker ones is further south and west and stronger members are in the gulf/US. With ocean so warm I think this one will be strong and further north.