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Tropical Hurricane Ian

BullCityWx said:
If it pulls a michael, thats a whole nother thing for sure. I had the honor of being outside when that squall line came through.
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Yeah I made sure to be inside because I was not walking down morrill drive in ncsu campus to class whne that went through with its winds . All those pine trees
 
Lickwx said:
Son stop telling people what to like and what not to like. My like has 0 impact on reality . How about we stop being self righteous ? Would be great.
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How about we stop bickering already good lord. What's going to happen is going to happen whether people cheer for or against it
 
Quick note- I think a lot of models overdo strengthening/underdo weakening as storms get close to/ride the coast. Best example is Matthew in 2016, which model after model/even official NHC forecasts had a major landfalling/just off the coast of NC/SC. Matthew was obviously significant and a big deal but as far as *hurricane structure* goes it was hanging on to dear life as a low grade Cat 1 when it eventually made landfall. More often than not land interaction is a death blow and I doubt the Euro Op has any real shot of happening for NC. (Also some synoptic shenanigans, with an upper low capturing that... how many mistimed phases have we seen with winter storms over that exact latitude?)
 
ILMRoss said:
Quick note- I think a lot of models overdo strengthening/underdo weakening as storms get close to/ride the coast. Best example is Matthew in 2016, which model after model/even official NHC forecasts had a major landfalling/just off the coast of NC/SC. Matthew was obviously significant and a big deal but as far as *hurricane structure* goes it was hanging on to dear life as a low grade Cat 1 when it eventually made landfall. More often than not land interaction is a death blow and I doubt the Euro Op has any real shot of happening for NC. (Also some synoptic shenanigans, with an upper low capturing that... how many mistimed phases have we seen with winter storms over that exact latitude?)
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Agreed there. Thats why unless I see this thing moving like Hugo did(about 4 hours from landfall to charlotte), I doubt extreme wind solutions.
 
BullCityWx said:
Agreed there. Thats why unless I see this thing moving like Hugo did(about 4 hours from landfall to charlotte), I doubt extreme wind solutions.
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I actually somewhat disagree. Something I find interesting about hurricanes is how they all seem to choose their own adventure once they make it onto land. Sometimes they fizzle out, but sometimes their strength can carry well inland and the news will run "whoa, 10M people are without power" chyrons because 70+ gusts mixed down and nabbed a string of big cities, maybe NOLA-Nashville-Pittsburg (dumb example). There's been a little work investigating how dry air intrusion can actually cause high gusts to mix down and have big gusts translate well away from landfall. I think this happened in both Michael remnants and Zeta (or one of those weird greek storms in 2020) in the Triangle. Big wind will always be on the table. What I doubt is that this storm will be captured by a ULL and slung back into the coast- that feels extreme
 
spitting out outflows like crazy right now. Looking at sat images right now would not lead anyone to believe this will become what the models suggest it will become
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_17.png

GFS more further west and weaker than the 0z.
 
How many big gulf canes had this setup...wish Eric was around he would probably know off the top of his head.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4139600.png
 
KyloG said:
Would think the further west solution is worse...meaning eventually stronger cane out in central gulf?
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Good possibility and eventually it probably still comes north, just how far west before that happens, who knows. Euro probably shoot NE ots in a little bit lol
 
The NBM consensus is starting to show an appreciable chance at heavy rains/wind from this thing around my area already... so..... doubtful this thing is just going to "fizzle" or end up crossing into Mexico or dying out over Cuba. Just weather models though, nothing set in stone.
 
Gfs at one time was the most north model with the vorticity now it's getting entangled into Northern South America which slows development and may be a by product of the north shear from fiona. It would be nice and much easier if we had a true trackable vortcity right now we are expecting models to get genesis, system track, and pattern across the conus right.
 
metwannabe said:
It's taking it's sweet time in the GOM on this GFS run that's for sure
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If it gets west, weak, slow its going to get caught under the ridge expanding east across the US and slow to a crawl. The outlet is still to the N/NE but it's not going to be a rocket like previous GFS and Euro runs
 
CMC landfall just around New Orleans, it's come east while the GFS has gone west.... but as Shane points out, really a crap shoot until we have something legit to track. Models don't know what to do with a sheared land interacting trough axis. Would be funny as heck if this thing got obliterated by the South American coast and nothing developed.
 
metwannabe said:
CMC landfall just around New Orleans, it's come east while the GFS has gone west.... but as Shane points out, really a crap shoot until we have something legit to track. Models don't know what to do with a sheared land interacting trough axis. Would be funny as heck if this thing got obliterated by the South American coast and nothing developed.
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I'd expect that the windshield wiper effect to continue until the transit near or over S America is resolved. The gfs is really more of a deep carribbean system versus a MDR or eastern carribbean origin system not that it changes a ton but the climo is different
 
Tracks into AL this run I spose'
 
Looks like though general consensus in a U.S. impact in some shape and fashion. Interesting enough the phase potential even after landfall looks to open the door to a possible really early season cold shot in the wake of it all .. sheesh that’s some cold air on the GFS .. but at the end of the day it’s all hoopla until we get a defined low level center that modeling can latch onto.
 
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