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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Meteorologist1999 said:
What I can see from EPS Is the weaker ones is further south and west and stronger members are in the gulf/US. With ocean so warm I think this one will be strong and further north.
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Yeah… especially as Fiona pulls away and her outflow becomes less of an issue. Those waters are pretty much untapped this year and have a lot of heat to fuel a storm
 
Arcc said:
One thing to consider, the Euro is rapidly weakening the storm close to landfall due to shear and dry air. Absolutely smoked.
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Until a hurricane approaching land actually starts to weaken, that isn’t a believable solution. The opposite is likely to happen. We are in the peak of hurricane season right now with water temps in the upper 80’s across most of the gulf and western Caribbean. If it makes it to the gulf, you can bet it’s going likely going to explode in intensity
 
iGRXY said:
Until a hurricane approaching land actually starts to weaken, that isn’t a believable solution. The opposite is likely to happen. We are in the peak of hurricane season right now with water temps in the upper 80’s across most of the gulf and western Caribbean. If it makes it to the gulf, you can bet it’s going likely going to explode in intensity
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Agreed… all of this talk of dry air and trough interaction are simply details that won’t get ironed out for over a week if there is a storm
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_39.png

GFS further west once again. Now has it making landfall in the western Florida panhandle as a high end Cat 2.
 
iGRXY said:
Until a hurricane approaching land actually starts to weaken, that isn’t a believable solution. The opposite is likely to happen. We are in the peak of hurricane season right now with water temps in the upper 80’s across most of the gulf and western Caribbean. If it makes it to the gulf, you can bet it’s going likely going to explode in intensity
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How is it not believable? Both Euro and GFS show a nasty TUTT across the northern Gulf with very dry air across the entire SE and western gulf. Now it may change, but it’s definitely worth mentioning unless we all decide to disregard all possible solutions and jump on the hype train.

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severestorm said:
Keep in mind, some structures are regulated to withstand hurricane force winds.

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Visiting the panhandle after Michael showed just how good the modern building codes are. The recently built houses stood like a champ compared to anything with age.
 
1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few
hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. The system continues to
show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical
depression within the next two or three days. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward
Islands late Wednesday and then move toward the central Caribbean
Sea late this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Code red. 70/90
 
Arcc said:
How is it not believable? Both Euro and GFS show a nasty TUTT across the northern Gulf with very dry air across the entire SE and western gulf. Now it may change, but it’s definitely worth mentioning unless we all decide to disregard all possible solutions and jump on the hype train.

View attachment 121648
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Yeah have to think with the setup this system would start to elongate N/NE and potentially get to a point where most of the precip is north of the center. May even be one of those big truck tire eyes with an open eye wall southwest and south
 
SD said:
Yeah have to think with the setup this system would start to elongate N/NE and potentially get to a point where most of the precip is north of the center. May even be one of those big truck tire eyes with an open eye wall southwest and south
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I definitely could see that. Now I do think if this takes a hard right NE into FL like a good number of ensemble members show it could stay south of the TUTT and the chance of it being stronger is much higher.
 
Arcc said:
I definitely could see that. Now I do think if this takes a hard right NE into FL like a good number of ensemble members show it could stay south of the TUTT and the chance of it being stronger is much higher.
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I agree with that as well. I think the further east in the GOM the stronger this is. And if it goes charley esk….. could be a nasty right hook for me down here
 
So we got about 5-6 days before we get close to an idea? I love model watching myself as it’s been a slow season!
 
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