I believe you could argue it's interaction with the South American coastline might help this spin up, not too mention shear eventually abating, but still that land interaction helping systems tightening up isn't uncommon
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
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- tropical
Assuming it organizes, this should explode in the Caribbean.
Still 70/90 on NHC 8 am update. Probably 36-48 hrs away from any development
A little "cleaner" image, pretty solid this far out no?
LickWx
Member
I love that track right into nc . Hooks south Florida then intensifies again and hits us ? Mean isn’t far off from it . I’ll take it . Also, right behind it in the Cape Verde area is another threat . Could be a double whammy like 99. Omg ! Weenie weenie weenie !A little "cleaner" image, pretty solid this far out no?
Bannerdude
Member
6z GFS is 11 mb weaker and further NW than 0z by at least 75 miles through hour 123.
Much too early to say this, but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a Caribbean cruising monster in Oct.
BHS1975
Member
Passing over max OHC too.
You sound strangely eager for disaster in Florida. I know you like rain but stick with your frontal boundary’s and stop “liking landfalling hurricanes” This is just disgusting. Sorry for being “that guy” but calm down. On to more important matters.
That frontal boundary looks to cause the storm to move further west and north toward the panhandle and Alabama. Having Fiona in Canada messes with the scheme of the westerlies.
I was thinking the same thing. Sandy came to my mind.
6z GFS would imply a significant flooding threat for NC west of 77. Probably a diminished wind threat.
accu35
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T
That’s a big west shift
If it crosses FL and recurred north into NC like that, I doubt it will reintensify very much before hitting NC again. LR models always show the weenie reintensification solutions. Reality is usually a bit different. Systems usually take a good while to come back and end up rolling ashore a rag-tag Cat 1 mess.
Henry2326
Member
06z GFS.....essentially the same as 00z but running faster.
and that is where all the models have this starting to blow up.
I’m skeptical of those winds as well. Unless it’s picked up by a front and it’s moving 50-60MPH, they never pan out and they degrade quickly.
LickWx
Member
Son stop telling people what to like and what not to like. My like has 0 impact on reality . How about we stop being self righteous ? Would be great.
LickWx
Member
Yeah, the euro has the phase though which turns it into a giant strung out hybrid . Which in a way is worse as winds spread out from center more .
If it pulls a michael, thats a whole nother thing for sure. I had the honor of being outside when that squall line came through.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah but I never turn my back on the gulf stream. It can do some crazy things to storms. Bertha exploded when she hit it with good conditions.
That's of course assuming the euro track would actually happen