Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
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It's going to rapidly strengthen with the warmer waters, even with land interaction, its still likely a doozy.
Good possibility and eventually it probably still comes north, just how far west before that happens, who knows. Euro probably shoot NE ots in a little bit lol
It can only go so far west...assuming development occurs, big assumption, this don't look good.
GFS will be panhandle into GA...it's got an alley. Op run day 7-8 so normal caveats.
Z
Zander98al
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I can attest gulf waters are as warm as bathwater, currently at Gulf shores Alabama.
The NBM consensus is starting to show an appreciable chance at heavy rains/wind from this thing around my area already... so..... doubtful this thing is just going to "fizzle" or end up crossing into Mexico or dying out over Cuba. Just weather models though, nothing set in stone.
The canadian did the same thing last night where it just buried this thing in the gulf
It's taking it's sweet time in the GOM on this GFS run that's for sure
Gfs at one time was the most north model with the vorticity now it's getting entangled into Northern South America which slows development and may be a by product of the north shear from fiona. It would be nice and much easier if we had a true trackable vortcity right now we are expecting models to get genesis, system track, and pattern across the conus right.
If it gets west, weak, slow its going to get caught under the ridge expanding east across the US and slow to a crawl. The outlet is still to the N/NE but it's not going to be a rocket like previous GFS and Euro runs
CMC landfall just around New Orleans, it's come east while the GFS has gone west.... but as Shane points out, really a crap shoot until we have something legit to track. Models don't know what to do with a sheared land interacting trough axis. Would be funny as heck if this thing got obliterated by the South American coast and nothing developed.
I'd expect that the windshield wiper effect to continue until the transit near or over S America is resolved. The gfs is really more of a deep carribbean system versus a MDR or eastern carribbean origin system not that it changes a ton but the climo is different
Still think the biggest threat for most of the carolinas will be flooding from this event
Looks like though general consensus in a U.S. impact in some shape and fashion. Interesting enough the phase potential even after landfall looks to open the door to a possible really early season cold shot in the wake of it all .. sheesh that’s some cold air on the GFS .. but at the end of the day it’s all hoopla until we get a defined low level center that modeling can latch onto.