Thor
Member
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=car&band=13&length=24
Those storms off of Tampa and those in SC cause a bit of head scratching ...
Those storms off of Tampa and those in SC cause a bit of head scratching ...
Thay would likely get some rain and wind back toward the Triangle.
Wind gust swath
dsaur
Member
In my world it's time for a nice walk
It's like tornado randomness, that sucker could surprise everybody. They usually don't get this powerful. and to think some zephers could move it, lol. That eye wall was a thing of beauty when I last looked. Tight as a tick.
Thor
Member
18z GFS was a Cape Fear special. Floyd on steroids basically
Lol talk about gradients. I guess this is Karma for not getting fringed during the winter.
pcbjr
Member
You would be blessed ...
Thor
Member
Yeah probably spells lights out for many SE of Raleigh, never really that fun in the summer. Lots of areas in that corner of the state have not recovered from Florence or Matthew for that matter
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Brent
Member
Hurricane hunter view inside the eye amazing
Fwiw RGEM is also farther west vs previous run
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
One thing for sure, the trend today has been moving more favorable for landfall versus going out to sea.
Ghost
Member
I’m here in west Columbia got rough really fast. Heavy downpour and wind
18z #CapeFear
JaxHurricane12
Member
Do y'all have the times for when the HWRF & HMON comes out?
pcbjr
Member
You can keep up with them here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
or in (y)our Wiki ...
HMON is running and the HWRF runs in 3 minutes.
MichaelAndrews
Member
I’m here in Chapin and for a minute I was like what is he talking about?? Then I looked outside and went ohhhhhh haha
GeorgiaGirl
Member
There was a 40% chance of showers I believe for the KCAE area and then to the east and south but the coverage and the kind of rain I'm getting at the moment sure seems like it should've been more like 60%.
I was a little surprised when I got a look at the southern SC radar after I heard the rain start too.
pcbjr
Member
look at their respective direction and flow ... Tampa and SC ...
NoSnowATL
Member
A nice little wobble south again. Still moving west at 5ish.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Downeastnc
Member
GFS is pretty darn close last run to MBY I live in Simpson ( red circle) ....45-50 or so miles from the center as the crow flies though it is the weak side.....there is usually a wind maxima on the west side inland in the central coastal plains....GFS has the hurricane pretty weak though compared to ICON/Euro/Ukie
Holy Poop!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
hmm, yeah it looks like to me these storms in the southeast atm are tropical influenced. They're moving east to west. Interesting...
Courtesy of the WAR.
HWRF is 15mb lower at hour 15 than the 12z was at hour 21
HWRF is gonna be off if EWRC occurs. I think slight weakening but a bigger storm over the next 24-48
Recon getting into the storm now.
Ser Pounce
Member
Well crap, that's 4 years in a row now. Not sure when/if I'll go until there's more information.
pcbjr
Member
Recon may well say otherwise, but sat looks like due W atm
pcbjr
Member
Understanding it is a layer high for some, this is not good ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah ERC is imminent. Fortunately, this is good news for the Bahamas, but bad news for Florida. It'll be complete sometime between tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening, still well away from landfall.
How can you tell?
pcbjr
Member
Look
Sorry - just had a major interruption at the front door ... did not mean to seem short ... went off before intended ...
Look at the eye; it seems to be "closing"; look at the bands around the eye --- seem to be increasing; watch how they interact and the outside moves in ... as time moves forward ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The microwave imagery and look at the recon data. See that sharp spike? It's the new eyewall developing fast.
