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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

sigwx said:
If you guys and ladies had to guess now What do you think this cane would do run up the coast of Fl. or hit inland and where would it hit inland. Just trying to get an ideal. Thanks
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I still think it's too far out for that. It could carve up the peninsula a la Irma, or ride the coast like Matthew. Maybe it'll just into the GoM. Just too many viable options on the table still at this point.
Someone is going to be very uncomfortable, that I know.

I'm sitting up here in Fernandina Beach in an area where major hurricanes normally don't play a role and I'm on pins and needles, although it looks like we'll be seeing angry left overs again.
 
Yuleeraptor said:
I still think it's too far out for that. It could carve up the peninsula a la Irma, or ride the coast like Matthew. Maybe it'll just into the GoM. Just too many viable options on the table still at this point.
Someone is going to be very uncomfortable, that I know.

I'm sitting up here in Fernandina Beach in an area where major hurricanes normally don't play a role and I'm on pins and needles, although it looks like we'll be seeing angry left overs again.
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Thank You
 
Unfortunately, the 18Z Euro ensemble mean stopped the easterly trend of the EPS and is slightly west of the less threatening 12Z, which had a few more OTS and hardly any in the GOM. The 18Z is a bit more balanced around FL vs the 12Z which had more east of FL. There are a larger number in the E GOM.
 
sigwx said:
If you guys and ladies had to guess now What do you think this cane would do run up the coast of Fl. or hit inland and where would it hit inland. Just trying to get an ideal. Thanks
Click to expand...

Finding gasoline readily available in that part of Florida could be an issue, so you will need to plan for that.

How long does it take you to drive from Jupiter back to your home in a normal situation?
 
GaWx said:
Unfortunately, the 18Z Euro ensemble mean stopped the easterly trend of the EPS and is slightly west of the less threatening 12Z, which had a few more OTS and hardly any in the GOM. The 18Z is a bit more balanced around FL vs the 12Z which had more east of FL. There are a larger number in the E GOM.
Click to expand...

Where in Fl. did it show hitting land.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Unfortunately, the 18Z Euro ensemble mean stopped the easterly trend of the EPS and is slightly west of the less threatening 12Z, which had a few more OTS and hardly any in the GOM. The 18Z is a bit more balanced around FL vs the 12Z which had more east of FL. There are a larger number in the E GOM.
Click to expand...
You got pics? Thanks
 
GaWx said:
There is no one spot. Much of the FL east coast. And then some ride it.
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Thank you, so there are some models still riding the east coast? Do you know how many, before you stated 30 to 40%. l hope that is still a trend. Thank you again!!
 
000
URNT15 KWBC 300206
NOAA2 1505A DORIAN HDOB 31 20190830
015700 2253N 06812W 7519 02478 9989 +149 +119 243051 052 057 000 00
015730 2255N 06812W 7515 02460 9949 +165 +121 244058 059 064 002 00
015800 2257N 06813W 7522 02431 9905 +187 +111 246064 066 069 002 00
015830 2259N 06813W 7513 02415 9863 +201 +104 246064 067 061 002 00
015900 2301N 06814W 7515 02379 9840 +191 +123 235041 051 051 001 00
015930 2303N 06814W 7516 02369 9824 +196 +102 209030 033 037 000 03
020000 2305N 06815W 7518 02350 9806 +201 +091 206022 023 033 000 00
020030 2307N 06817W 7521 02333 9786 +206 +092 199016 020 035 000 03
020100 2308N 06818W 7514 02326 9764 +211 +102 177008 013 035 000 03
020130 2310N 06819W 7525 02314 9774 +192 +122 071023 034 039 000 03
020200 2312N 06819W 7527 02323 9791 +185 +139 079042 051 078 003 00
020230 2314N 06819W 7523 02349 9831 +162 +154 087071 080 092 002 00
020300 2316N 06819W 7512 02397 9889 +139 //// 087095 098 090 008 01
020330 2318N 06819W 7503 02436 9937 +130 //// 088090 092 081 016 01
020400 2320N 06819W 7515 02451 9967 +131 //// 089085 088 078 010 01
020430 2321N 06819W 7524 02466 9990 +137 +124 091078 080 071 006 00
020500 2323N 06819W 7513 02493 0012 +136 +123 089072 074 066 008 00
020530 2325N 06819W 7524 02492 0022 +139 +112 092068 069 065 005 00
020600 2327N 06819W 7513 02515 0041 +131 +110 093066 068 060 006 00
020630 2329N 06819W 7497 02537 0053 +120 //// 089066 068 058 016 01


Latest recon data shows the pressure at 976.4 mb and the SFMR winds at 92 knots.
 
Snowfan said:
000
URNT15 KWBC 300206
NOAA2 1505A DORIAN HDOB 31 20190830
015700 2253N 06812W 7519 02478 9989 +149 +119 243051 052 057 000 00
015730 2255N 06812W 7515 02460 9949 +165 +121 244058 059 064 002 00
015800 2257N 06813W 7522 02431 9905 +187 +111 246064 066 069 002 00
015830 2259N 06813W 7513 02415 9863 +201 +104 246064 067 061 002 00
015900 2301N 06814W 7515 02379 9840 +191 +123 235041 051 051 001 00
015930 2303N 06814W 7516 02369 9824 +196 +102 209030 033 037 000 03
020000 2305N 06815W 7518 02350 9806 +201 +091 206022 023 033 000 00
020030 2307N 06817W 7521 02333 9786 +206 +092 199016 020 035 000 03
020100 2308N 06818W 7514 02326 9764 +211 +102 177008 013 035 000 03
020130 2310N 06819W 7525 02314 9774 +192 +122 071023 034 039 000 03
020200 2312N 06819W 7527 02323 9791 +185 +139 079042 051 078 003 00
020230 2314N 06819W 7523 02349 9831 +162 +154 087071 080 092 002 00
020300 2316N 06819W 7512 02397 9889 +139 //// 087095 098 090 008 01
020330 2318N 06819W 7503 02436 9937 +130 //// 088090 092 081 016 01
020400 2320N 06819W 7515 02451 9967 +131 //// 089085 088 078 010 01
020430 2321N 06819W 7524 02466 9990 +137 +124 091078 080 071 006 00
020500 2323N 06819W 7513 02493 0012 +136 +123 089072 074 066 008 00
020530 2325N 06819W 7524 02492 0022 +139 +112 092068 069 065 005 00
020600 2327N 06819W 7513 02515 0041 +131 +110 093066 068 060 006 00
020630 2329N 06819W 7497 02537 0053 +120 //// 089066 068 058 016 01


Latest recon data shows the pressure at 976.4 mb and the SFMR winds at 92 knots.
Click to expand...
At this rate we could be at cat 3 by the 5 am update
 
The cruise ship sailing today, from Charleston, has already re routed to Miami! Instead of the Bahamas
 
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