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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

The funny thing about the Euro (I have not verified this personally, but it came from a met on social media), it has supposedly performed the absolute worst of all modeling in regards to strength of Dorian so far.
 
Shawn said:
The funny thing about the Euro (I have not verified this personally, but it came from a met on social media), it has supposedly performed the absolute worst of all modeling in regards to strength of Dorian so far.
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I saw that too. But I don't know how that's being measured.
 
Rain Cold said:
I know there are varying opinions on this, but I feel like the Euro has done a relatively good job with the overall track idea. I know it has oscillated around with the exact track, but it has been fairly consistent showing the recurve...i.e. not sending it underneath FL like the Icon was or into the Gulf like the UK (i mean i think it did initially, but it's been off that idea for a while), or sending it well inland like the Canadian was doing. Assuming the track remains offshore and the recurve happens, I think it will have done pretty well. Initially, it had the wrong idea, but it's been pretty similar now for a while.

We're in a situation where 50 miles can make a huge difference, especially with regard to landfall/no landfall. But I have a hard time being too critical of a model for failing to get to that degree of specificity 3+ days out for a Cat 5 hurricane.
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I remember all of the “50 mile” talk with Mathew and it just stayed offshore. I’m not sure Dorian even gets as close to the coast as Mathew. I’m ever so slightly concerned that a LF might be possible up towards Hatteras though. Just a half a percentage point. An outside chance. But possible. Very scary what’s going on in the Bahamas right now. I just can’t imagine
 
IDK, it still looks very healthy eye wall. It very well may start an ERC, recon will help with that in a bit.
 
I will say this, if that Atlantic ridge starts building back in quicker (models, especially euro) are hinting at that, Plus the trof over the GL and NE is trending quicker and further north, I **could** see this coming up and trying to sneak into NE FL and north then NE and just pound all states in the SE. Euro op and especially the EPS are a little messy again, and that tells me there might be some funny changes going forward.
 
Rain Cold said:
They haven't seeded it yet. They need to get that going. Or get ready to launch the Trident.
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They’ve got to seed it after rapid intensification. Although they will most likely hold off now since it’s predicted to stay offshore. If they seed it at the wrong time they trade isolated Wind/High Surf disaster for Widespread flood disaster which is much more costly to the big banks and insurance companies.

Don’t shoot the messenger
 
deltadog03 said:
I will say this, if that Atlantic ridge starts building back in quicker (models, especially euro) are hinting at that, Plus the trof over the GL and NE is trending quicker and further north, I **could** see this coming up and trying to sneak into NE FL and north then NE and just pound all states in the SE. Euro op and especially the EPS are a little messy again, and that tells me there might be some funny changes going forward.
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Chris ... I haven't written off the Space Coast just yet ...
 
deltadog03 said:
IDK, it still looks very healthy eye wall. It very well may start an ERC, recon will help with that in a bit.
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NHC thinks maybe it is but could be a fake out maybe a little bit of tightening from land interaction might not be a true ERC, the core looks pretty healthy to me....

From 5pm NHC disco

The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is
possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the
eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations
in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will
continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time.
 
Rain Cold said:
I know there are varying opinions on this, but I feel like the Euro has done a relatively good job with the overall track idea. I know it has oscillated around with the exact track, but it has been fairly consistent showing the recurve...i.e. not sending it underneath FL like the Icon was or into the Gulf like the UK (i mean i think it did initially, but it's been off that idea for a while), or sending it well inland like the Canadian was doing. Assuming the track remains offshore and the recurve happens, I think it will have done pretty well. Initially, it had the wrong idea, but it's been pretty similar now for a while.

We're in a situation where 50 miles can make a huge difference, especially with regard to landfall/no landfall. But I have a hard time being too critical of a model for failing to get to that degree of specificity 3+ days out for a Cat 5 hurricane.
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I agree with some of what you said....but....it only became a cat5 this morning around 9:00 and it was barely forecasted on HWRF.. I agree with Phil, the models are trying to apply knowns to a situation full of unknowns. The saying goes "you only know what you know." I'm worried about what we don't know.....
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
Thanks for posting this updated. Like the map you posted earlier, it would be better to post the steering for under 940 mb. This one is for 1000-1010 mb.
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This?
wg8dlm6.GIF
 
I keep getting this "nagging/gut feeling" that Dorian may be what Floyd was feared to be ..No offense to what NC when through with him.
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
Thanks for posting this updated. Like the map you posted earlier, it would be better to post the steering for under 940 mb. This one is for 1000-1010 mb.
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Larry - Says 200 - 700 <940 ... what am I missing?
 
Sleet City USA said:
This?
wg8dlm6.GIF
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One can see here that the westerly steering is starting to weaken/collapse as the high weakens and the trough to the north passes by. So, we have to make sure that the semi-stall happens by about the western edge of Grand Bahama island by tomorrow evening. If so, FL should avoid a landfall.
 
I think right now I would blend the 12z Euro with Hurricane Mathew and Hurricane Floyd and that’s your track
 
GaWx said:
One can see here that the westerly steering is starting to weaken/collapse as the high weakens and the trough to the north passes by. So, we have to make sure that the semi-stall happens by about the western edge of Grand Bahama island by tomorrow evening. If so, FL should avoid a landfall.
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Southern Florida should. The Northern part can still be impacted as demonstrated by the HWRF. Of course it never fully stops, but it slows considerably enough to turn.
 
18z GFS looks to be a slight tick further west compared to 12z out to hour 33. Maybe 10 miles? Every mile counts on this one when it comes to sensible weather over land.
 
We're all giving it our best shot ... somewhere in here is the "answer" ... likely not mine but as we all are ... tryin' ... :cool:

Edit: and we all bring a bunch of knowledge, experience, differing perspectives, and a good bit of gut to the table ... carry on ...
 
Seems like a Wilmington landfall here on the GFS.

Still fairly strong as well although not as strong as it is today (obvious).
 
malak05 said:
No it would just become burning Godzilla
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If one got big enough in conjuntion with an earth quake to break up the methane hydrates, with all that lightening, ........oh, the humanity for sure. Burning hurricane sharknado. I'm going to write the script right now...as soon as I don't wash the car again :)
 
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