Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[jackendrickwx]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 23.3N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

 

[Brick Tamland]

NHC actually went a little father south with the track.

 

[Brent]

There's been a notable trend on this model cycle
toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be
seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is
shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the
previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the
models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets
incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus
on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4
and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.

 

[sigwx]

Will you have somebody to split the driving with or are you driving the entire roundtrip yourself?

I will drive by myself and it is a long drive. When l go under normal driving conditions l spent the night near Phil's home town. Spilting the drive up is a good thing when you get my age

 

[Philstorm91]

That last sentence is particularly ominous:

There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the
south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission,
which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day.
As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop
somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level
low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be
pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air
entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification
while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the
intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with
the corrected-consensus guidance. Unfortunately, I don't see any
large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Could it make a run at a cat 5?

 

[Snowfan]

Could it make a run at a cat 5?

I have a feeling it could.

 

[SCWXGuy]

Could it make a run at a cat 5?

While CAT5 is always extrodinary, I don't see how can you rule it out given everything we are seeing? Truly a sad and speechless scenario developing.

 

[Rick]

What time is 00z models thanks

 

[RollTide18]

Could it make a run at a cat 5?

Wouldn’t shock me, or at least a 155 mph Hurricane similar to Floyd.

Nothing is off the table especially after this thing was supposed to be shredded by now.

 

[Snowfan]

What time is 00z models thanks

The ICON is running, the GFS runs in about 20 minutes, HMON starts at 12:15 AM, HWRF starts at 12:30 AM, Euro starts at 1:45 AM.

 

[Brent]

Could it make a run at a cat 5?

I think it can especially closer to the Bahamas

 

[Arcc]

ICON already much slower than 18z at 42hrs. Good grief.

 

[Brent]

ICON already much slower than 18z at 42hrs. Good grief.

where does it end???

I'm starting to get sarcastic about what day landfall will be considering its Thursday

I remember when it was Saturday Night, then Sunday, then Sunday Night, then Monday, now ????

 

[Avalanche]

Further south with the stall?

 

[sigwx]

There's been a notable trend on this model cycle
toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be
seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is
shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the
previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the
models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets
incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus
on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4
and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectivel

I think it can especially closer to the Bahamas

Brent, how well do think the models are doing with this cane so far?

 

[Brent]

Brent, how well do think the models are doing with this cane so far?

not well... it was supposed to die or be really weak north of Hispanola... center reformed and everything changed

 

[Ollie Williams]

I don’t know why models have been Initializing to weak. It takes the Icon a day+ to reach our current pressure.

 

[Arcc]

I don’t know why models have been Initializing to weak. It takes the Icon a day+ to reach our current pressure.

Globals do not do well with forecasting strength on normal sized hurricanes, much less small ones.

 

[Breslau]

I will drive by myself and it is a long drive. When l go under normal driving conditions l spent the night near Phil's home town. Spilting the drive up is a good thing when you get my age

You are facing some tough decisions. By the time that you definitely know that you need to go to Jupiter, things will be starting to get chaotic in that area. Driving patterns will be changing and there will be uncertainty about the availability of gasoline and lodging in much of Florida.

Good luck.