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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

HMON might actually landfall on the space coast, although farther north than the 12z.

Should also be mentioned however that it heads NNW early in the run and spares Grand Bahama a bit, and unless we see a change soon, it looks like Dorian is going to hit the majority of it (although Freeport might still not get the worst of it).

Edit: It doesn't but it gets close. Too close.
 
214
URNT15 KNHC 012303
AF304 3005A DORIAN HDOB 19 20190901
225400 2655N 07754W 6970 03018 9890 +103 +052 042078 080 086 011 00
225430 2654N 07753W 6965 03012 9869 +110 +047 043079 080 087 012 00
225500 2653N 07752W 6967 02993 9851 +111 +053 042083 084 079 004 00
225530 2651N 07750W 6968 02978 9843 +104 +071 039084 085 071 009 00
225600 2650N 07749W 6973 02960 9811 +119 +059 040086 088 072 006 00
225630 2649N 07747W 6966 02948 9789 +120 +053 042091 092 077 006 00
225700 2648N 07746W 6968 02920 9771 +110 +072 042098 101 082 008 00
225730 2647N 07745W 6966 02893 9744 +106 +071 041107 110 089 006 00
225800 2646N 07744W 6962 02859 9705 +103 +070 042117 120 098 010 00
225830 2645N 07742W 6970 02798 9668 +085 +084 044130 134 106 034 00
225900 2644N 07741W 6974 02736 9609 +086 +086 043140 144 111 055 00
225930 2644N 07740W 6970 02654 9517 +097 +097 042147 150 120 067 03
230000 2643N 07739W 6978 02573 9429 +106 //// 037131 146 154 073 01
230030 2642N 07738W 6958 02491 9263 +145 +119 038102 126 150 045 06
230100 2641N 07736W 6980 02412 9162 +202 +108 046052 074 037 002 03
230130 2640N 07735W 6994 02373 9149 +192 +100 060026 040 035 002 00
230200 2639N 07733W 6937 02436 9155 +174 +094 064011 019 024 002 00
230230 2637N 07732W 6982 02379 9138 +196 +079 222009 020 021 001 00
230300 2636N 07731W 6981 02390 9148 +197 +075 226040 045 039 004 00
230330 2634N 07730W 6978 02434 9206 +176 +083 223077 091 076 004 03
$$
;
Winds have decreased to 154 knots and the pressure have risen to 913.8 mb.
 
Downeastnc said:
GFS is pretty darn close last run to MBY I live in Simpson ( red circle) ....45-50 or so miles from the center as the crow flies though it is the weak side.....there is usually a wind maxima on the west side inland in the central coastal plains....GFS has the hurricane pretty weak though compared to ICON/Euro/Ukie


View attachment 22805
Click to expand...
Not Crow flying weather Lol.... yeah 50 miles off and it's a fun ride that's for sure
 
ForsythSnow said:
One last note for now. The eyewall is stable at the moment, but we will start seeing destabilization when the new eyewall starts choking the old one, so when that happens, the wobbling is going to be crazier.
Click to expand...
it's late but the last visible gave an indication of the outer eye bands wanting to dig out the inner ones
 
HWRF hits space coast
hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_20.png
 
Just based on the radar trends over the last few hours and the normal, nocturnal pattern of thunderstorm development along the SE Coast of Florida during the overnight, I believe Dorian could produce numerous thunderstorms over Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, St. Lucie, and Brevard countiy tonight from 9PM to 7AM. Dorian will be far enough west to pound us with thunderstorms from the North. West Palm Beach will likely see the brunt of the heavy rain.

BTW definitely saw a WSW wobble in the last couple frames of IR. It dipped under the northern extent of Abaco Island.
 
Tornadocane said:
Just based on the radar trends over the last few hours and the normal, nocturnal pattern of thunderstorm development along the SE Coast of Florida during the overnight, I believe Dorian could produce numerous thunderstorms over Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, St. Lucie, and Brevard countiy tonight from 9PM to 7AM. Dorian will be far enough west to pound us with thunderstorms from the North. West Palm Beach will likely see the brunt of the heavy rain.
Click to expand...
This goes against all conventional wisdom ... but truly hoping you have lawn furniture and potted plants secure ...
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Well my zone is being told to evacuate tomorrow at noon. I live right on the water. Hmmm idk what I'm gonna do.
Click to expand...
Same thing here sitting across from downtown, I'm giving it until at least tomorrow evening to make any decisions. It's just too unclear what the local effects might be.

My location is not far off the Ashley River but just above zone AE. No trees within striking distance of the house either.
 
Ser Pounce said:
Same thing here sitting across from downtown, I'm giving it until at least tomorrow evening to make any decisions. It's just too unclear what the local effects might be.

My location is not far off the Ashley River but just above zone AE. No trees within striking distance of the house either.
Click to expand...
Well ya see... I'm right on the Wadamalaw river. And I'm surrounded by huge oaks. But idk if I'm gonna go.
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Well ya see... I'm right on the Wadamalaw river. And I'm surrounded by huge oaks. But idk if I'm gonna go.
Click to expand...
I just moved to Mount Pleasant and I've never been in a hurricane on the coast before.. do they close the bridges at some point during these types of events?
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Well my zone is being told to evacuate tomorrow at noon. I live right on the water. Hmmm idk what I'm gonna do.
Click to expand...
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Well my zone is being told to evacuate tomorrow at noon. I live right on the water. Hmmm idk what I'm gonna do.
Click to expand...

Get out while you can. High tide on Thursday is 2:01 pm. NHC has the cone marked for 2 pm Thursday, just north of Charleston. The storm is running faster than the models so it could be there sooner. Add in the impact of King tides and you might find yourself in a real bad situation. Here is the surge map for a cat3 at high tide.

CHS_mom3.png
 
Pressure up to 915mb. Still 185mph and 5mph heading 270 degrees west
 
pcbjr said:
Understanding it is a layer high for some, this is not good ...

View attachment 22806View attachment 22807
Click to expand...

Phil,
As Chris said, this map is for the steering of much, much weaker systems in the 1000-1010 mb range. It is based on the 700-850 mb layer, which is ~5K-10K feet altitudes, which is shallow and which works for only weak storms. As storms get stronger, they get steered by a higher mean level in the atmosphere. The other map you posted for <940 mb hurricanes like Dorian is for very strong systems and, therefore, is based on a much higher mean steering layer in the atmosphere that is different from the 700-850 mb layer’s steering. That’s why the <940 mb maps would be much better to post.
 
Bham 99 said:
I just moved to Mount Pleasant and I've never been in a hurricane on the coast before.. do they close the bridges at some point during these types of events?
Click to expand...
High span bridges (Ravenell, Cosgrove, ...) will close once when winds reach 40mph. With regard to evacuation, travel within 526 is not impeded. Lane reversal starts at the 26/526 interchange, but I would avoid travel on 526 with the exception of anywhere outside the city of North Charleston to avoid being caught up in any forced outbound traffic. There are a few exits open between Charleston and Columbia - the nearest I believe is near the Volvo plant (absolute outer Summerville area).
 
Sleet City USA said:
Pressure up to 915mb. Still 185mph and 5mph heading 270 degrees west
Click to expand...

At some point during the slowdown, especially when it comes close to stalling, I expect a marked drop in strength due to significant cooling of SSTs all around the storm. Maybe this is just the start of a nice weakening trend. We’ll see.
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
As Chris said, this map is for the steering of much, much weaker systems in the 1000-1010 mb range. It is based on the 700-850 mb layer, which is ~5K-10K feet altitudes, which is shallow and which works for only weak storms. As storms get stronger, they get steered by a higher mean level in the atmosphere. The other map you posted for <940 mb hurricanes like Dorian is for very strong systems and, therefore, is based on a much higher mean steering layer in the atmosphere that is different from the 700-850 mb layer’s steering. That’s why the <940 mb maps would be much better to post.
Click to expand...
Larry ... Give me a link ... Those are the only ones I have and they default to storm strength, it seems ... regardless, they are instructive and informative at least ...
 
Not that I would evacuate Charlestown, but if I did, I don’t think you would have to go that far west to be in the clear! Like a trip to Bojangles or something for half the day outside of town. The storm will be moving much quicker north east by then.
 
Bham 99 said:
I just moved to Mount Pleasant and I've never been in a hurricane on the coast before.. do they close the bridges at some point during these types of events?
Click to expand...
Yep...they will close them. I posted the surge map in another post for a cat 3. Take a look at your location.
 
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