• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

We better start praying or doing some voodoo or whatever it takes to get this to curve out to sea, because if Dorian does hit it is going to be very destructive. This could end up tearing apart FL, GA, SC, and NC.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Wherever the low starts crawling at is going to get a bunch of heavy rain dropped on them:

View attachment 22382
Click to expand...

As I’ve said, don’t be surprised if the rainfall ends up being as big a story from this as any aspect. I mean those 10-20”+ amounts on the 18Z GFS probably cover some 20K miles (that’s 2/3 the size of the state of SC). I was checking some other SE storms like Floyd, Joaquin, Florence, Alberto, and Matthew. Based on this, I think that the 18Z GFS might be making it close to a record dumping for one storm in the SE. It is possible that only Florence would exceed this model run. What’s amazing is that Dorian isn’t even projected to be a big storm! Besides the very slow movement, very important heavy rain favoring factors are very low shear persisting through its inland track and very warm SSTs/dewpoints. (Harvey isn’t a SE storm. So, it isn’t being considered. This wouldn’t get close to Harvey, which may be a 1 in 1000 year event.)
 
Brick Tamland said:
We better start praying or doing some voodoo or whatever it takes to get this to curve out to sea, because if Dorian does hit it is going to be very destructive. This could end up tearing apart FL, GA, SC, and NC.
Click to expand...
want it to dissipate? just prog it to somehow cause a snow in wake, and the whole damn thing will just vaporize ... o_O
 
Latest pass showing 972mb with 16kt winds. So probably 970’ish...yikes.
 
As of now do you think Jupiter Fl. is in the path. l have to know soon my Mother lives there and l may need to go and get her. The models showed a little hope of a recurve up the coast. Thanks for your Help.
 
[
sigwx said:
As of now do you think Jupiter Fl. is in the path. l have to know soon my Mother lives there and l may need to go and get her. The models showed a little hope of a recurve up the coast. Thanks for your Help.
Click to expand...

Even if it's not a direct hit, I don't think Jupiter gets out of this without some significant impacts. My opinion.
 
We are close enough now to see our pieces!
I enjoy examining these so here we go.

First you can clearly see some shear impacting the southern portions of Dorian. Likely the last bit of negative environment on Dorian from the retreating ULL.

Next the two outflow channels are really exploding. On loop the western channel is just exploding outward. Sign of great environment on the horizon.

You can see the silhouette of our ridge/high that will block and shove Dorian to the west. This is moving VERY slow and will take another day before influencing a change of direction.

Finally dorians track and you can see how the diverging scenarios at landfall can play out.

We can’t see what that ridge will do yet and that’s why you have model chaos.

Hope this is helpful for all of you! You really can see a lot if you just look ?
19D0DF89-623A-4FC5-81C5-E5976E380F78.jpeg

Starting in the next 8-14 hrs Dorian will have its best environment yet. It will have plenty of room for outflow and relatively little shear and dry air. It will have a solid 24hrs to really show what it’s got before the high really influences it and could cause it to level off.

This environment can easily support a cat 4.
 
GaWx said:
As I’ve said, don’t be surprised if the rainfall ends up being as big a story from this as any aspect. I mean those 10-20”+ amounts on the 18Z GFS probably cover some 20K miles (that’s 2/3 the size of the state of SC). I was checking some other SE storms like Floyd, Joaquin, Florence, Alberto, and Matthew. Based on this, I think that the 18Z GFS might be making it close to a record dumping for one storm in the SE. It is possible that only Florence would exceed this model run. (Harvey isn’t a SE storm. So, it isn’t being considered. This wouldn’t get close to Harvey, which may be a 1 in 1000 year event.)
Click to expand...
To add to this as the storm moves north its likely to transition to a left of track heavy rain event with good divergence aloft a jet steak over the mid Atlantic and trough approaching. Using the 18z gfs you could probably expand that rain shield in the Carolinas farther NW as it is likely underestimating the aerial coverage

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
sigwx said:
As of now do you think Jupiter Fl. is in the path. l have to know soon my Mother lives there and l may need to go and get her. The models showed a little hope of a recurve up the coast. Thanks for your Help.
Click to expand...

Based off the most recent runs, I'd say there's going to be significant impacts at the very least, but I think what I'd do is I'd watch it until late tomorrow and then decide. Gives yourself an extra day before the rush if needed.
 
going to bed now (yes, I hear the cheers ... LOL) ... hope to wake up and find our little friend is way OTS ... my only regret is that if that happens, next time folks will ignore the hype, be complacent, and suffer the consequences ...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top