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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

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Arcc said:
Obviously it will not be the same type of monster it is now, but onshore flow from the surface high and Dorian will cause problems for areas in GA, SC and NC ahead of the storm. If it shoots north into Charleston it would be a complete disaster.
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IF the Euro/Ukmet are right pressure wise then he would still be a strong Cat 2 even maybe a weak Cat 3 probably somewhere around 105-120 mph...models generally suck at intensity though so who knows, I would imagine that by then the storm would also be expanding its wind field quite a bit....

this is ridiculous

elbow cay wow.png
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro: Take with a grain. The 6 hour 12Z Euro position (2 PM EDT) is about 30 miles NNE of its actual position at 2 PM EDT.
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After looking at Tropical Tidbits and weathermodels.com, I've decided to retract this about the 12Z Euro's 12 hour position being 30 miles too far NNE. It may very well still be too far NNE, but I'm now thinking my provider (private) map may have mislead me or is off some and that the 12Z Euro probably isn't as far off as that. I do feel confident that the 12Z initialized somewhat to the NE of the 0Z run's 12 hour position. But was that initialization too far NE vs actual? Well, after looking with a fine-tooth comb at Tidbits maps (it gives you lat and long) and comparing to the 8 AM NHC, it actually may be an accurate initialization.
 
GaWx said:
After looking at Tropical Tidbits and weathermodels.com, I've decided to retract this about the 12Z Euro's 12 hour position being 30 miles too far NNE. It may very well still be too far NNE, but I'm now thinking my provider (private) map may have mislead me or is off some and that the 12Z Euro probably isn't as far off as that. I do feel confident that the 12Z initialized somewhat to the NE of the 0Z run's 12 hour position. But was that initialization too far NE vs actual? Well, after looking with a fine tooth comb at Tidbits maps (it gives you lat and long) and comparing to the 8 AM NHC, it actually may be an accurate initialization.
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in my world, we call that an Errata Sheet!
 
Bama Ravens said:
NHC says there could be gusts of 220mph.

o_O
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and this thing is supposed to follow the written rules of the road? that's what bothers me about the models ... they are dealing with an unknown ... and applying their built in knowns to something they are not programmed to historically factor ...
 
KyloG said:
What you think? Doesn't look promising...

Last 4 EPS runs.

View attachment 22782
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Keeps playing catch up with reality, look at the first couple of runs and all the members that were heading north before it reached the Abaco Islands.... never good when models have to adjust to reality
 
metwannabe said:
Keeps playing catch up with reality, look at the first couple of runs and all the members that were heading north before it reached the Abaco Islands.... never good when models have to adjust to reality
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in this case a reality they have no history dealing with or similar data to measure against ... exacerbates error likely ...
 
metwannabe said:
Keeps playing catch up with reality, look at the first couple of runs and all the members that were heading north before it reached the Abaco Islands.... never good when models have to adjust to reality
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And to thing TWC is praising the Euro right now for consistency. Total BS. It's behind that's why it's so consistent.
 
Not sure if I saw anyone post these and I know it has a west/southwest bias but here are the 12z UK ensembles FDAE6A1F-A07E-4AF2-ACBB-F0CA6CBD064A.jpeg
 
Shaggy said:
Not to downplay their catastrophe but had the eye stayed just a bit south and they never got the eye it would have been way worse. At least those poor people get a brief respite in the eye itself.
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Isn't it WORSE to be north of the eye since the northern eyewall is where the highest winds are(converging winds + west forward motion = stronger winds)?
 
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