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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

So looking at the new 12z EURO, as Larry pointed out, it still has some issues with short term movement and speed. However, this seems to be the closest run in the last few to the coast of FL, GA, SC and NC. I am trying to go back and do a full comparison but TT site is having issues. understandably so. However, from what I can tell, it appears the short term ridging and quicker movement of Dorian is having the model playing catch up in the short term, but also the EURO *IMO* is telling us to expect changes with the 2nd trof. It has been trending weaker and further north with the GL trof and the mess to our west is more mute. I think the model is trying to tell us something.
 
SD said:
That high S of Bermuda keeps growing and growing. Going to make any NE turn from NC south very difficult

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yeah the trend today for NC is pretty clear....still its 4.5-5 days out so who knows what the models will show Tues.....still I will spend my day off tomorrow getting all my stuff in the garage etc and probably go get a few supplies before the rush...if its a Cat 1 though it wont be a big deal very savvy folks down here when it comes to canes.
 
Cadi40 said:
Are chances for a FL landfall going down or up? Here in NC I’m starting to get worried(
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Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Just wanted to see yall's thinking about SC? I personally think its gonna be reallyyyyy close... Maybe I'm wrong?
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East of US1 needs to start preparing. West you're not out of the woods just yet your chances are increasing from the west trend. I don't see Florida getting hit hard with the exception of the coast because of the Surface HP falls apart and Upper-level steering mainly takes effect pushing It north. Bottom line the Further north you are the more you need to keep watch.
 
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Obviously it will not be the same type of monster it is now, but onshore flow from the surface high and Dorian will cause problems for areas in GA, SC and NC ahead of the storm. If it shoots north into Charleston it would be a complete disaster.
 
SD said:
That high S of Bermuda keeps growing and growing. Going to make any NE turn from NC south very difficult

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yes sir..I think the doc is trying to tell us something. GL trof is getting less and less involved. Oh, check out the 12z HWRF....kinda shows whats possible?
 
SD said:
That high S of Bermuda keeps growing and growing. Going to make any NE turn from NC south very difficult

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Click to expand...
It's never been a hard kick to the NE and even less so now.... it's getting so far west now without a trough to shoot it NE hard, well
 
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SD said:
That high S of Bermuda keeps growing and growing. Going to make any NE turn from NC south very difficult

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Never can count out how models can't get the strenght of impacts from the ne figured easily. It's one blaring constant to me, especially in winter.
 
The trend so far today has definitely been more west and a bigger threat for landfall.
 
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