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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here we go. Should be an interesting night with recon on the way
Wouldn’t the slowing coming into the Florida coast, cause weakening due to upwelling?
Stormsfury
Member
Track outputs basically seem to be a blend of both Floyd and Matthew on model guidance on these latest outputs. Sheesh
Jessy89
Member
Should be more accurate in the morning. With weather balloon and recon information going into the models. The new sampling should give us a more accurate track
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BHS1975
Member
If he stays off shore of FL a bit we could be in trouble.
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pcbjr
Member
Bump - but it should have been more accurate before now ... except with these things, one never knows, so here's on to 11:00, 5:00,and then ...
pcbjr
Member
Anyone see something odd with this local NWS forecast?
Monday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 73.
Monday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 73.
If I’m not mistaken, water temps at 80 degrees goes pretty deep in those waters near the eastern FL coast and plus it’s part of the Gulf Stream
40% chance of Hurricane conditions.
pcbjr
Member
That is not what it says, though ... but I digress and the humor is sour ... my apologies ...
Not to mention it would have to stall out for some time for upwelling to commence and have any effect
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The HMON must've found some crack because it's saying a cat 5 in 24 hours.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like one plane is going to cross the NW to SE quadrants first and the other do the SW to NE quadrants. We should have data from all 4 quadrants in the next half hour.
NHC track and most models have Dorian crossing 25N 75W, right on that point.... I'm using it as a point of reference, atm still looks to be moving n or nw. If this crosses 25N east of 75W it will be close to slowing/turning prior to landfall imo.
Really looks like it’s starting to get going, graphics isn’t the best but maybe some gravity waves in that CDO, also lightning signaling tall convection 
farleydawg792
Member
HMON says Dorian wants to go to the Keys for Labor Day...
Jessy89
Member
I don’t buy into this model but it’s a interesting run.
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pcbjr
Member
Just some misc stuff showing up down here ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 18z HMON run seemed black-out drunk & got a little too carried away w/ happy hour. Forecasted 973mb at 0z (8pm) about the time of this first recon pass so we'll see how close it is.