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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

metwannabe said:
The NHC track didn't necessarily change but the forward speed has as it approaches Florida and the 5 day cone has expanded. it's South of Florida and up in the Georgia. So while it's not massive changes I think it's a subtle change that shows the probabilities of what the models are now hinting at.

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Yeah when the cone starts to get that round ball look at 5 days you know they are expecting a slowdown or even a stall and are not really sure where it goes from there....
 
pcbjr said:
No - Sarasota and Jupiter are not set up that way; Tampa is booked (son lives there and he's saying all sorts of traffic is showing up). It would be a bad evac ...
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Thank you.

If Dorian makes landfall at Miami Beach with a turn North delayed until it reaches the GoM, even those in Tampa could be uneasy.
 
ICON seems out to lunch on strength IMO..does spend a little time over Florida..but still...doubt it weakens that much. Hell, it’s also near that big lake where storms have used before as fuel.
 
ForsythSnow said:
2 new planes just took off from FL on their way to Dorian. It'll be a couple of hours before they reach the storm. If Dorian doesn't start to look bad, I'd wager we will see 970s and strong cat 1 - weak cat 2 winds on the first pass.
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You think the ERC is complete? I would think that would have to finish first before it did any more intensifying.
 
Dorians outflow looks nice right now, it will probably look amazing tommorow morning, upper level low the the west helping to channel it out N/NW, storm is now in a environment that supports quick strengthening, and will continue to until it hits land, also note that feeder band, it’s definitely impressive, it almost gives the storm just a tiny bit of a more “mid latitude type storm look to it” but it’s definitely all tropical and those towers that are going up around the eye will only warm the core 743EA15C-13F7-405B-8BD6-68369602B3D5.jpeg
 
So far, at hour 42 the GFS seems slower and a little stronger. In some of the frames it looked a bit north compared to 12z, but now just seems slower.

and yeah I was going to try to post a gif with a comment about how Dorian is looking pretty good right now for this stage but I couldn't. :(
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
So far, at hour 42 the GFS seems slower and a little stronger. In some of the frames it looked a bit north compared to 12z, but now just seems slower.

and yeah I was going to try to post a gif with a comment about how Dorian is looking pretty good right now for this stage but I couldn't. :(
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Yeah, the 18Z GFS is easily the furthest east of the last 4 runs. The trend on hitting FL has been southward. Let’s see if that continues.
 
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