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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

GaWx said:
I don’t know if anyone posted this, but the 6Z Euro ensemble mean was closer to the SE coast than at least the prior 3 runs with more runs inland FL-NC.
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I thought you did? maybe that was just about the OP run...Either way, if this makes landfall or not anywhere in the SE, IMO all of the models are having a hard time with the forward speed in the short term.
 
Every model is initializing WAY too high pressure wise. Interesting to see how that will have skewed the models (if at all) once this is all said and done
 
Its only the ICON but seems like its more on board with the EURO/GFS short term so its a bit more concerning that it has this now..

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12z GFS looks a hair east compared to 6z but it's still too close for comfort and in the range of if this ends up even just 25 MPH to the west, the east coast of Florida is going to get some hurricane conditions.
 
Sleet City USA said:
Every model is initializing WAY too high pressure wise. Interesting to see how that will have skewed the models (if at all) once this is all said and done
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Globals do not have the resolution to get the pressure right they cant really do 50mb drops over 20 miles like you see in canes.... and them being off does not really effect them.....
 
Friend just texted and said lastest pass showed 909mb. Pressure still falling. Can anyone verify this????


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I know there is still a ton of uncertainty, but what could we possibly be looking at around Myrtle Beach?
 
Still absurd amounts of lightning around the eyewall, in fact the eyewall seems like one giant supercell

This is one of the more impressive Canes I’ve seen

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anyone have a link to a valid article/paper.primer/chapter/analysis on the effect of atmospheric conditions (troughs, ridges in particular) on major hurricanes (in particular the tracks)? If so, I'd like to get it into our Wiki!
 
KyloG said:
This isn't good if you want a miss. Look at the trough over the southern Canada...allows Dorian to move N before getting pushed NE.

View attachment 22744


12 hours later...look at the atlantic ridge flex.

View attachment 22745
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If that subtropical ridge flexes anymore it’s gonna push impacts further inland in NC, rain and wind would be a issue with a pressure gradient
 
Snow_chaser said:
I’m sorry if it’s been done, but could you explain how to read this?
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The winds in the chart are winds recorded at the second it was in that position as the dropsonde falls. The information below that from what I have heard is the average wind in that part of the eyewall recorded. If that's true, this is up around 185 - 190.
 
I’ll just add that if there gonna be a landfall in the us at all. I think it’s likely a brief one somewhere in the Carolinas. But the most likely scenario is just off the coast.


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And we where laughing at the hwrf a few days ago. Look at radar/sat fellows. It dont get any bigger,bader,perfectly structured than this. That northern bahama island is about to get nuked and i mean that literally. Unreal
 
GaWx said:
Add the 12Z CMC to list of 12Z runs EAST of respective 6Z. So, ICON, GFS, Legacy, and CMC all east of 6Z. 4 out of 4 so far.
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Now can add 12Z UKMET to list of runs EAST of respective earlier runs off of FL, GA, and at least much of SC. So, ICON, GFS, Legacy, CMC, and UKMET all east of prior run. 5 out of 5 so far fwiw. But of course we’ll need to see the storm turn in a timely fashion for those to verify.
Anyway, PERHAPS the 6Z consensus will turn out to be the furthest west?? At least there’s a chance and this possibility shouldn’t be ignored.
 
Per radar josh has punched the eyewall dead center. Cant wait for his report and pics especially with the insanely clear eyewall.
 
I think I’m done looking at models lol, at this point I’m seeing what the storm is doing, any wobbles, speed, north or south movement, match to current forecasts, anything can happen
 
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