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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

OBX May be coming in with a greater risk now that what previously thought.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
OBX May be coming in with a greater risk now that what previously thought.
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Great news for Florida if it curves NE and misses them, but then it puts the Carolinas in danger. Hopefully, it curves enough NE to miss everyone.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Great news for Florida if it curves NE and misses them, but then it puts the Carolinas in danger. Hopefully, it curves enough NE to miss everyone.
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It’s more likely to be a sharper east turn than to say a rare westward inland track to have any meaningful impacts for say Goldsboro, NC. Trends are good let’s keep rolling good to have King EURO on board.
 
I still would be cautious calling it going in the same direction. I know I'm repetitive, but go look at some previous storm cones and tell me that they can flip.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5NLW.shtml
Joaquin was a good example of going OTS that was thought to go inland initially.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml
Matthew is one everyone keeps bringing up. It kept getting closer to land not farther away.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/MARIA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
Maria was OTS but still shows the same trending west principle to some degree
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
And Irma completely flipped coasts at one point.
 
I said a few days ago if it goes north of Porto Rico. My gut says it’s going out to sea. I don’t know if that will happen but it’s still a possibility. Even though a Florida landfall still seems very probable


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Tarheel1 said:
Euro notoriously over does the wind forecasts, the slow movement, per Euro, wind would not be an issue hear.
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Especially on the west side, however the east side of the center more so along the coast would probably still experience TS conditions all the way up, these inland runners have often produced strong TS and even hurricane gust over the IBX/OBX of NC even after landfall in the GOM etc....
 
I know it's really arbitrary and there's more factoring in but I think OTS if this thing gets really strong. If not I think we're going to have a Matthew/Hugo-ish like storm.

And I do remember how Matthew was going to skirt OTS initially but I learned on a sports forum at first about the trend in the opposite direction.
 
I think if I lived on the Flordia coast or near I would wait another day or too. This track is still up in the air and spending hundreds of dollars to prepare for nothing (IF)makes local news and people mad unfortunately. The 5pm Advisory will be telling.


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