Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[pcbjr]

One time warning only - this is a serious thread and sure there will be a little banter from time to time, we're all guilty. But it's not going to turn into a hurricane whamby 2.0 thread. We've picked up a good number of new members over the last several days and I'm sure primarily so they could get some good analysis on Dorian, think before you post please and if it's banter, use one of the banter threads. Too much going on to for us to move a bunch of post so in here they will get deleted. Thank you and if you have complaints..... too bad.

My bad ... will behave ...

 

[Ethan80963!]

Final precip map

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[Yuleeraptor]

I live basically on Fernandina Beach. this latest run makes me feel like it wont be here after Dorian comes through.

 

[Bryce Shelton]

One time warning only - this is a serious thread and sure there will be a little banter from time to time, we're all guilty. But it's not going to turn into a hurricane whamby 2.0 thread. We've picked up a good number of new members over the last several days and I'm sure primarily so they could get some good analysis on Dorian, think before you post please and if it's banter, use one of the banter threads. Too much going on too for us to move a bunch of post so in here they will get deleted. Thank you and if you have complaints..... too bad.

Well stated.

 

[GaWx]

Early 12Z EPS maps suggest it will likely be similar to the 6Z version with many sharp recurvers along with a good number of FL hits/skims that then turn north. Likely won't be that many crossing to the Gulf.

 

[JaxHurricane12]

I live basically on Fernandina Beach. this latest run makes me feel like it wont be here after Dorian comes through.

I'm in Jax Beach. It's one model run and tbh the runs were similar with Matthew and the damage wasn't too bad except beach erosion.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

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@metwannabe looks like 2 out of 14 on this chart ever make it to cat 4. Law of averages say this thing doesn’t make landfall as a Cat4. Roughly a 14% chance according to current model guidance

 

[Brick Tamland]

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Well, majority of the tracks still keep it west into Florida. But look at the number that have it at least a cat 3 now. Majority now showing cat 3 or higher.

 

[KyloG]

Again, with quicker weakening of w-ar. Surprised it was further south than 0z, had it not it might have missed Florida and hit GA/SC.

 

[GaWx]

Early 12Z EPS maps suggest it will likely be similar to the 6Z version with many sharp recurvers along with a good number of FL hits/skims that then turn north. Likely won't be that many crossing to the Gulf.

Confirmed. The 12Z EPS mean is mirroring the 12Z operational. It is somewhat similar to the 6Z EPS.

 

[deltadog03]

Confirmed. The 12Z EPS mean is mirroring the 12Z operational. It is somewhat similar to the 6Z EPS.

Which is a little west from last night's run I believe.

 

[GaWx]

I roughly estimate that 28-30 of the ~51 12Z EPS members don't even reach the FL east coast, which is similar to the 6Z EPS.

 

[Cadi40]

This storm seems like Matthew and Hugo had a baby, just my opinion.

 

[GaWx]

Which is a little west from last night's run I believe.

Chris,
It is actually a good bit east of the 0Z run.

 

[KyloG]

EPS trend

 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS: more runs are actually east of the operational than west.

 

[weatherfide]

So CNN is saying Dorian will make landfall as a category 4. This this true?

Don’t get your news from that source, nothing can be believed from them. NHC is the best source.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Don’t get your news from that source, nothing can be believed from them. NHC is the best source.

Except it is true. They can be biased on politics, but meteorology they show what everyone else is showing unless they have older or newer data.

 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS: good number of Carolina skimmers but I think there are more than that that recurve sharply and never landfall. A SE US miss cannot be written off just yet! I'm certainly not predicting that but wouldn't that be amazing?