Unless the ridge is much more negatively tilted It's still going to move NW. That why I don't see any real chance of this storm going into inland Florida unless the MSLP steers It at the surface. If Its very close It may move inland over south GA
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
look at the drier air to the west and NW....that keeps driving down from NE to SW. tells me the ridge is still controlling the show right now..
NoSnowATL
Member
Any good webcams to watch this on the Bahamas?
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922mb on lastest past
131700 2633N 07637W 6962 02475 9232 +174 +029 054068 092 099 001 00
131730 2632N 07635W 6978 02435 9225 +160 +031 086032 053 065 006 03
131800 2630N 07635W 6967 02445 9229 +150 +034 111017 026 043 006 03
131700 2633N 07637W 6962 02475 9232 +174 +029 054068 092 099 001 00
131730 2632N 07635W 6978 02435 9225 +160 +031 086032 053 065 006 03
131800 2630N 07635W 6967 02445 9229 +150 +034 111017 026 043 006 03
ForsythSnow
Moderator
UPDATE TO 175 MPH and 922 mph!
Stormsfury
Member
Not weird since it hasn't undergone an ERC since its initial restructure to shed that convection scorpion tail it had for days getting it's act together
very true...you would still think it would have had one by now though. Interesting storm for sure.
Brent
Member
Well we all suspected it was a 5 last night but wow
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so it's now about 210 miles E of WPB, according to new update just now, I believe it was 310 on the 11pm adv. from last night. So some rough math........so 100 miles (roughly) in 10 hours would be about 10 mph. So, def. not slowing down yet.
Bama Ravens
Member
Anyone have any live streams from Abaco Island?
Found it...so yup, last nights adv was around 310 miles E of WPB, and now we are 210 miles E of WPB....so its been moving around 10 mph pretty much due westerly.
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
20 ft of storm surge is crazy
Ser Pounce
Member
None that work any more.
Holy Cow Josh is there. Didnt know it. He is about to get rocked.
Bama Ravens
Member
Thanks. If anyone sees any that are working, post them please!
If you think about it, it’s basically a humongous EF-4 tornado but instead a eyewall
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Honestly, could be his most dangerous chase.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's pretty much a 20 - 25 mile wide tornado.
Even if I was a person that loves TCs, that’s a nope nope for me, he could be stuck on there for a long time, winds gonna be destructive aswell
You can see Dorian on the base reflectivity out of Miami now. Looks like the eyewall is about 16 miles away from the first island
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Dorian continues to strengthen and is not slowing down, still moving west. The longer it takes to slow down, the longer it will take to start moving north like the models have it doing, and the greater chance it has to hit land. The models already have it very close to land. If they are wrong by just a little bit it could mean a world of difference in where Dorian goes. It doesn't look good right now
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This is terrifying.
Jessy89
Member
The islands could potentially go under water. Anyone on those islands are absolutely crazy
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Tarheelwx
Member
Really much worse when you consider the flooding/SS associated with Dorian.
Sandbar
Member
Storms this compact and powerful write their own rules and create their own stirring currents to an extent. If you are the NHC you have to take a stab at future track based on model data you are looking at but this thing is going to do its own thing atleast until it passes through and destroys the bahamas.
The thing you gotta think about to, is that a storm this strong, often reinforces ridging/subsidence to its west/northwest
scary!This is terrifying.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well this isn't good news. I'm sure he's right though.
RollTide18
Member
Correct me if I’m wrong but it seems like big uptick in lightning around the eye, if so, uh oh.
SnowNotHappen
Member
No, you're not wrong. Uh-OhCorrect me if I’m wrong but it seems like big uptick in lightning around the eye, if so, uh oh.
What's insane is last night I said I could see Dorian peak between 165-175mph. My prediction could possibly be conservative. That's scary to think about.
Correct me if I’m wrong but it seems like big uptick in lightning around the eye, if so, uh oh.
Not only that but it’s CDO is almost becoming perfect
Correct me if I’m wrong but it seems like big uptick in lightning around the eye, if so, uh oh.
This is scary.
It’s insane That just the fact this storm has 220 mph winds, even if it’s aloft
ForsythSnow
Moderator
RI is imminent then. All I can say is hold on because we are about to see some insane recon obs over the next hour.Correct me if I’m wrong but it seems like big uptick in lightning around the eye, if so, uh oh.
Ser Pounce
Member
For anyone who was asking about streams, there's one from Marsh Harbour