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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

That trof is going to move out quickly tho too. The ridges are already trying to re-build over the top. It could move so slow off the SE coast of FL that it gets pulled north (with trof effects) then stall because that pushes out and ridges bridge over again.
You nailed it, trough exiting stage right, ridge building in...
 
This is why no one should say Florida is certain. Wouldn’t take much to avoid Florida landfall altogether. Few miles east it’s over the open water and STRONG.
 
ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_9.png

Now heading into southeastern GA.
 
Massive rains Jupiter to St Augustine so far as it barely moves near or just offshore FL NE coast.
3rd landfall Jax Beach! Now turned inland.

Meandering along the NE Florida coast would be really bad for the Georgia coast, too. Days of onshore water push plus copious amounts of rain in Southeast Georgia.

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don't be surprised if this is a very rare moving WNW or NW from there landfall type... (again just this run, and another solution!) The ridges have bridged over and nothing to really kick this out.
Which is very scary if it avoids Florida and makes a rare NW run into inland south-east. Would be someone else’s Hugo to deal with. Unlikely tho IMO.
 
There would be Massive Evacuations from Miami all the way up to Georgia if this Model came true and took a path like that !!!!!!
 
Still ridging overhead Dorian as it heads into GA, has nowhere to really go, just gonna float wherever it wants until it can get kicked out, man What a run
 
Craziest model run yet. Dorian just rides up the whole east coast of Florida.
 
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