• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

metwannabe said:
Of course atm Dorian still chugging along, crossing 74W now....
Click to expand...

What is the distance between each degree in that area? 64 miles?

If it keeps going West (or WNW) at 8 mph for a while instead of changing to NW, then it will be a fair distance from where it was expected to be and the models will have to adjust unless they respond with an even sharper change to compensate for being further West than expected.
 
HMON looks similar to the Nam at 250mb. Looking to be moving NW. however ridge not as strong.
8B0E767F-1243-4425-A1E6-F6FDA16B6B73.jpeg
356434C4-77EA-4733-B58D-C75B23F9E537.jpeg
 
I’m breathing pretty easy for my area based on the 0Z GFS/GEFS, the ICON, CMC, HWRF, and that IBM model notwithstanding. As long as the Euro stays pretty far east, I’ll be even better and getting closer to feeling confident of nothing bad. The current movement as I said earlier doesn’t phase me because the good models, including Euro, have shown this.
 
Pressure has dropped, but not any change in winds.

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS...
2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.3°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
 
GaWx said:
I’m breathing pretty easy for my area based on the 0Z GFS/GEFS, the ICON, CMC, HWRF, and that IBM model notwithstanding. As long as the Euro stays pretty far east, I’ll be even better and getting closer to feeling confident of nothing bad. The current movement as I said earlier doesn’t phase me because the good models, including Euro, have shown this.
Click to expand...
What is your area because Lowcountry of SC is definitely still in play.
 
Went back and looked at the past six NHC advisories (all times ET):

11 a.m., 26.0 N, 73.4 W, movement W 8 mph
2 p.m., 26.1 N, 73.9 W, movement W 8 mph
5 p.m., 26.2 N, 74.4 W, movement W 8 mph
8 p.m., 26.2 N, 74.7 W, movement W 8 mph
11 p.m., 26.3 N, 75.1 W, movement W 8 mph
2 a.m., 26.3 N, 75.6 W, movement W 8 mph

Slightest wobbles to the north but consistent movement west. How far west does this go before we see the turn to the WNW/NW? Fascinating/terrifying/frustrating storm to follow.

--30--
 
Simply a convective blowup on the western eyewall causing a wobble west or even sw can change impacts for the FL coast, so close here
 
Euro looks like It May turn inland soon.
3ee0f1ce01a8abb90e1ea265bd85a0bc.jpg
 
Models always seem to underestimate influence from the ne. I don't fall for the fish storm play easily, lol. I've seen too many fish storms not be fish storms :) I'm still not washing my vehicles, and I may do the gutters again just to make sure I have the anti whammy working well. No sighs of relief until it's past Ga. and even then they sometimes come back around and chase you, lol.
 
Still can't rest easy after that significant 0Z Euro westward shift. But what this really does is move the Euro from being a right outlier to close to the more dependable consensus just offshore.
 
NHC is gonna have some tough decisions this morning(in addition to this intensity controversy) hurricane watches will probably be required for FL
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I won’t be surprised based off H5 to see another small shift west to put it on the coast which will definitely ramp up conditions in your area.
Click to expand...

Good gosh, I hope not! I'm still not overly worried to be honest because the center only came 30 miles closer to me at its closest approach on the 0Z Euro and it is still 120 miles away vs 150 miles on the 12Z. So, fortunately it would still take a big shift west for my area to start getting in the "significant hit" zone...say if my area got within 60 or so miles. And then if it did shift like that, it might be over land ( N FL/SE GA) before thus weakening him some.
 
GaWx said:
Good gosh, I hope not! I'm still not overly worried to be honest because the center only came 30 miles closer to me at its closest approach on the 0Z Euro and it is still 120 miles away vs 150 miles on the 12Z. So, fortunately it would still take a big shift west for my area to start getting in the "significant hit" zone...say if my area got within 60 or so miles. And then if it did shift like that, it would likely be over land ( N FL/SE GA) before thus weakening him some.
Click to expand...
What you thoughts for Charleston in terms of winds and rain?
 
That’s a lot of strong convection and lightning east of Dorian. Hopefully it doesn’t develop while Dorian stalls.
 
GaWx said:
0Z Euro hour 54 clearly the furthest west of last 4 runs at the stall point..so much closer to SE FL.
Click to expand...
I agree! Def. the furthest west, but what I took most of out that run is it dropped its unrealistic (IMO) stall for like 24 hours from a couple of runs ago.
 
Brent said:
NHC is gonna have some tough decisions this morning(in addition to this intensity controversy) hurricane watches will probably be required for FL
Click to expand...
I have always thought its better to be pro-active when it comes to those types of things with watches and warnings. I know people get mad when they bust (either good or bad) but thats a tough call. Today's movement will be by far most important as models really try to slow this down later today just off shore of the coastline. That was a very close call from the doc. I am glad it stopped with that wierd super long stall. didn't seem realistic.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top