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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

pcbjr said:
no - NE quad ...
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It's the NE quad if the storm is moving in a northerly direction. In the case of a westward moving storm, the strongest winds would be on the NW quadrant of the storm since that would be the "front" of the storm. The winds on the NW side would get more speed added from the west forward motion of the storm.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
It's the NE quad if the storm is moving in a northerly direction. In the case of a westward moving storm, the strongest winds would be on the NW quadrant of the storm since that would be the "front" of the storm. The winds on the NW side would get more speed added from the west forward motion of the storm.
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but it's gonna hockey puck due north ... or so "they" say ... just being forward looking ... LOL
 
LovingGulfLows said:
It's the NE quad if the storm is moving in a northerly direction. In the case of a westward moving storm, the strongest winds would be on the NW quadrant of the storm since that would be the "front" of the storm. The winds on the NW side would get more speed added from the west forward motion of the storm.
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Simple way is to think "Front/Right"Quad of storm relative to the direction of travel/eye
 
gawxnative said:
Simple way is to think "Front/Right"Quad of storm relative to the direction of travel/eye
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gawxnative said:
Simple way is to think "Front/Right"Quad of storm relative to the direction of travel/eye
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I know (and knew) ... just tired and thought it was a nice bit of subtle humor ... guess not ... my bad ... carry on ...
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looks like Freeport now “should” miss the brunt of it..
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Didn’t it passing to the south of Freeport portend more issues (and by issues here I mean potential disaster) for FL/GA/SC/NC? I know it’s not official, but I thought I remember earlier discussing this would be an indicator models may be somewhat awry.....
 
Henry2326 said:
Me too.....squeeze it up next to the coast or even on land and, as Phil says " it hockey pucks into Charleston or nearby....
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The hockey puck that concerns me is WPB to Orlando to Jax ... not in the cards this deal, but the Casino has a table open with a fresh deck ready to play ...
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Lantana to the
Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County
Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet to the
Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County
Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
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Hurricane Warnings issued for parts of the Florida coast.
 
Sleet City USA said:
Do we think it will weaken any since its heading over the Bahamas? Or is the land too small and flat?
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Land area is small and flat. I don't think it will have appreciable impacts. I think more impactful will be the negative attribute of upwelling as the stall occurs.
 
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I know there are varying opinions on this, but I feel like the Euro has done a relatively good job with the overall track idea. I know it has oscillated around with the exact track, but it has been fairly consistent showing the recurve...i.e. not sending it underneath FL like the Icon was or into the Gulf like the UK (i mean i think it did initially, but it's been off that idea for a while), or sending it well inland like the Canadian was doing. Assuming the track remains offshore and the recurve happens, I think it will have done pretty well. Initially, it had the wrong idea, but it's been pretty similar now for a while.

We're in a situation where 50 miles can make a huge difference, especially with regard to landfall/no landfall. But I have a hard time being too critical of a model for failing to get to that degree of specificity 3+ days out for a Cat 5 hurricane.
 
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