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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

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Arcc said:
Obviously it will not be the same type of monster it is now, but onshore flow from the surface high and Dorian will cause problems for areas in GA, SC and NC ahead of the storm. If it shoots north into Charleston it would be a complete disaster.
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IF the Euro/Ukmet are right pressure wise then he would still be a strong Cat 2 even maybe a weak Cat 3 probably somewhere around 105-120 mph...models generally suck at intensity though so who knows, I would imagine that by then the storm would also be expanding its wind field quite a bit....

this is ridiculous

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GaWx said:
12Z Euro: Take with a grain. The 6 hour 12Z Euro position (2 PM EDT) is about 30 miles NNE of its actual position at 2 PM EDT.
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After looking at Tropical Tidbits and weathermodels.com, I've decided to retract this about the 12Z Euro's 12 hour position being 30 miles too far NNE. It may very well still be too far NNE, but I'm now thinking my provider (private) map may have mislead me or is off some and that the 12Z Euro probably isn't as far off as that. I do feel confident that the 12Z initialized somewhat to the NE of the 0Z run's 12 hour position. But was that initialization too far NE vs actual? Well, after looking with a fine-tooth comb at Tidbits maps (it gives you lat and long) and comparing to the 8 AM NHC, it actually may be an accurate initialization.
 
GaWx said:
After looking at Tropical Tidbits and weathermodels.com, I've decided to retract this about the 12Z Euro's 12 hour position being 30 miles too far NNE. It may very well still be too far NNE, but I'm now thinking my provider (private) map may have mislead me or is off some and that the 12Z Euro probably isn't as far off as that. I do feel confident that the 12Z initialized somewhat to the NE of the 0Z run's 12 hour position. But was that initialization too far NE vs actual? Well, after looking with a fine tooth comb at Tidbits maps (it gives you lat and long) and comparing to the 8 AM NHC, it actually may be an accurate initialization.
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in my world, we call that an Errata Sheet!
 
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