• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Will be interesting to see if Dorian can strengthen today. Still plenty of questions on timing as always.
 
NCSNOW said:
Still sticking to my Floyd Track hunch from yesterday morning. Also nothing pretty about a major Hurricane hit. But for Miami, if you have to have one, better served getting it from the NE direction as opposed to SE direction.

Still think this thing puts on brakes right at the NE Florida Coast and stalls, crawls up the coast cutting across coastal plain of SC /NC on way ots.

I do think it gets a little closer to Florida Coast before stalling, We'll see

View attachment 22289
Click to expand...
In the last few years, it seems storms on this track, end up correcting left, more than not,
 
Taking a look at things this morning, I think when you take in all the model runs, there is one thing that has remained constant more than anything else, and that is a major hurricane hitting Florida. Yes, there have been some minor changes here and there, and there is time for more changes. But at this moment I believe that is the best forecast to go with.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Still looks to be tracking on the eastern most edge of the NHC cone and looking at water vapor plus below, sure think it gains more latitude than projected before it turns west..... I could see this actually stalling off the coast before it resumes it's next motion (west or north or ots)

1567079834485.png
 
Ethan80963 said:
HWRF farther north and weaker at hr 93View attachment 22291
Click to expand...
“Weaker” haha still a cat 4 or 5 monster ... I don’t think we should consider a jump from 914 to 930 as “weaker” this is going to intensify to a very strong storm no matter what the small number ends up being
 
NCSNOW said:
Still sticking to my Floyd Track hunch from yesterday morning. Also nothing pretty about a major Hurricane hit. But for Miami, if you have to have one, better served getting it from the NE direction as opposed to SE direction.

Still think this thing puts on brakes right at the NE Florida Coast and stalls, crawls up the coast cutting across coastal plain of SC /NC on way ots.

I do think it gets a little closer to Florida Coast before stalling, We'll see

View attachment 22289
Click to expand...


Yep....did you see the CMC put on the brakes and hit a wall?!?!? I think we are converging to a coast rider that could have even more issues than one landfall.
 
Henry2326 said:
Yep....did you see the CMC put on the brakes and hit a wall?!?!? I think we are converging to a coast rider that could have even more issues than one landfall.
Click to expand...

One thing I know is when the models start slowing storms down there is usually a change to track guidance as well. We saw that with florence last year.
 
032
URNT15 KWBC 291310
NOAA2 1305A DORIAN HDOB 20 20190829
130100 2059N 06704W 6948 03154 9997 +112 +077 273038 039 039 002 00
130130 2101N 06702W 6953 03132 9975 +117 +077 275041 044 042 001 00
130200 2103N 06701W 6938 03126 9947 +117 +076 283047 049 049 003 00
130230 2105N 06700W 6947 03086 9897 +126 +107 279041 047 050 006 00
130300 2107N 06659W 6965 03048 9881 +126 +111 226011 014 033 007 00
130330 2109N 06658W 6978 03032 9868 +143 +089 142016 019 029 009 03
130400 2111N 06659W 6984 03033 9869 +151 +067 118024 026 027 000 03
130430 2113N 06658W 6980 03042 9879 +144 +092 122036 048 070 008 00
130500 2114N 06656W 6985 03058 9925 +122 +119 129061 064 066 017 03
130530 2116N 06655W 7020 03042 9950 +127 +106 129061 063 062 014 00
130600 2117N 06653W 6995 03087 9977 +119 +093 138055 056 060 006 00
130630 2118N 06652W 6970 03129 0008 +105 +085 142056 057 057 002 00
130700 2120N 06650W 6954 03159 0029 +096 +087 147054 055 055 002 00
130730 2121N 06648W 6953 03168 0038 +095 //// 147052 054 052 003 01
130800 2123N 06647W 6958 03167 0044 +097 +094 151048 049 048 002 00
130830 2125N 06645W 6967 03166 0053 +099 +079 149048 049 046 001 00
130900 2126N 06644W 6966 03173 0061 +096 +087 151051 052 041 001 00
130930 2128N 06642W 6963 03179 0082 +085 +076 146046 047 038 002 00
131000 2129N 06640W 6960 03185 0084 +085 +073 149047 049 037 002 00
131030 2131N 06639W 6957 03191 0089 +083 +076 149050 051 037 003 00
Recon data shows the pressure back down to 986.8 mb but the winds have slightly gone down to 70 knots.
 
Snowfan said:
032
URNT15 KWBC 291310
NOAA2 1305A DORIAN HDOB 20 20190829
130100 2059N 06704W 6948 03154 9997 +112 +077 273038 039 039 002 00
130130 2101N 06702W 6953 03132 9975 +117 +077 275041 044 042 001 00
130200 2103N 06701W 6938 03126 9947 +117 +076 283047 049 049 003 00
130230 2105N 06700W 6947 03086 9897 +126 +107 279041 047 050 006 00
130300 2107N 06659W 6965 03048 9881 +126 +111 226011 014 033 007 00
130330 2109N 06658W 6978 03032 9868 +143 +089 142016 019 029 009 03
130400 2111N 06659W 6984 03033 9869 +151 +067 118024 026 027 000 03
130430 2113N 06658W 6980 03042 9879 +144 +092 122036 048 070 008 00
130500 2114N 06656W 6985 03058 9925 +122 +119 129061 064 066 017 03
130530 2116N 06655W 7020 03042 9950 +127 +106 129061 063 062 014 00
130600 2117N 06653W 6995 03087 9977 +119 +093 138055 056 060 006 00
130630 2118N 06652W 6970 03129 0008 +105 +085 142056 057 057 002 00
130700 2120N 06650W 6954 03159 0029 +096 +087 147054 055 055 002 00
130730 2121N 06648W 6953 03168 0038 +095 //// 147052 054 052 003 01
130800 2123N 06647W 6958 03167 0044 +097 +094 151048 049 048 002 00
130830 2125N 06645W 6967 03166 0053 +099 +079 149048 049 046 001 00
130900 2126N 06644W 6966 03173 0061 +096 +087 151051 052 041 001 00
130930 2128N 06642W 6963 03179 0082 +085 +076 146046 047 038 002 00
131000 2129N 06640W 6960 03185 0084 +085 +073 149047 049 037 002 00
131030 2131N 06639W 6957 03191 0089 +083 +076 149050 051 037 003 00
Recon data shows the pressure back down to 986.8 mb but the winds have slightly gone down to 70 knots.
Click to expand...
You can see it fighting dry air right now on IR
 
968
URNT15 KWBC 291320
NOAA2 1305A DORIAN HDOB 21 20190829
131100 2132N 06637W 6962 03190 0092 +083 +080 151047 047 039 003 00
131130 2133N 06635W 6968 03185 0101 +079 //// 150045 045 038 018 01
131200 2135N 06633W 6961 03194 0097 +083 //// 152047 050 077 008 05
131230 2136N 06632W 6957 03199 0089 +089 //// 147044 048 050 052 05
131300 2137N 06630W 6950 03215 0098 +086 //// 142049 052 046 038 05
131330 2139N 06628W 6963 03202 0101 +088 +078 138048 049 041 009 00
131400 2140N 06627W 6964 03204 0108 +085 +082 140047 049 041 009 00
131430 2142N 06625W 6954 03218 0111 +083 //// 141052 054 041 015 01
131500 2143N 06623W 6938 03236 0108 +085 //// 138041 051 043 021 05
131530 2144N 06622W 6905 03269 0097 +084 //// 143048 058 044 020 01
131600 2146N 06620W 6904 03273 0101 +081 //// 133043 045 043 010 01
131630 2147N 06618W 6923 03254 0107 +081 //// 131049 051 042 006 01
131700 2148N 06617W 6938 03236 0123 +075 //// 121047 048 040 005 01
131730 2150N 06615W 6957 03218 0117 +086 +069 124048 048 041 002 00
131800 2151N 06614W 6963 03214 0116 +089 +066 127045 046 040 002 00
131830 2152N 06612W 6963 03216 0116 +092 +062 129042 045 039 000 00
131900 2154N 06611W 6959 03223 0116 +093 +058 129040 041 037 002 00
131930 2155N 06609W 6958 03224 0114 +096 +055 132039 040 038 002 00
132000 2157N 06607W 6962 03222 0123 +090 +058 126034 036 036 003 00
132030 2158N 06606W 6957 03231 0125 +090 +059 125032 033 035 005 00
Actually the winds are a bit stronger. Up to 77 knots SFMR.
 
To be honest, I think this is starting to look very healthy. (not that it really wasn't before) I Am talking more symmetric. Looks more expansive with the CDO and as it works out more Dry air, then its probably off to the races.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top