Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[DopplerWx]

6z eps with the northern turn very similar to matthew. slooooowly crawls up the fl coast towards the SE.

 

[KyloG]

Maybe RainCold will be right.

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[Brick Tamland]

Maybe RainCold will be right.

View attachment 22304

That does not look good for us north of Florida. Should have known anything more than 72 hours out is going to change.

And scary thing is if it does not go west into Florida and has more time over water, it could just become even stronger for where it eventually does hit.

 

[JaxHurricane12]

I strangely am getting a feeling that this will end up being something similar to how Matthew was.

 

[deltadog03]

Maybe RainCold will be right.

View attachment 22304

whats interesting, and we will have to keep an eye on this, but notice how toward the end (on this map time frame) how they are bending back toward the NW toward the coastline.

 

[Henry2326]

Matthew......as the storm looks for a weakness in the ridge....

 

[GaWx]

EPS means for 6Z 144 vs 0Z 150 vs yesterday’s 12Z 162: can you say east shift and increased chance for NC landfall or maybe even a sharp recurve OTS?

6Z 144:


0Z 150:


yesterday’s 12Z 162:

 

[Brick Tamland]

View attachment 22305View attachment 22306

But then this screams a Florida hit, and looks like more and more getting to a cat 3.

 

[KyloG]

You can see the w-ar keeping Dorian south and west but then it weakens and another w-ar build back west. There will be an alley it looks like with a big low in SE Canada. The ridge in the west seems really stout.

I know DT already said Dorian isn't coming north and risk to the SE (GA/SC/NC) is over played but not sure how he can say that yet. I still thinks this hits Florida unfortunately.

I wonder how many hurricanes have hit the SE with a big low in SE Canada like that.

 

[Snowfan]

241
URNT12 KWBC 291342
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 29/13:02:57Z
B. 21.12 deg N 066.99 deg W
C. 700 MB 3005 m
D. 987 mb
E. 105 deg 09 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C5
H. 51 kt
I. 209 deg 3 nm 13:02:16Z
J. 271 deg 55 kt
K. 211 deg 16 nm 12:59:24Z
L. 77 kt
M. 040 deg 38 nm 13:12:10Z
N. 129 deg 64 kt
O. 019 deg 8 nm 13:05:00Z
P. 11 C / 3045 m
Q. 15 C / 3026 m
R. 6 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1305A DORIAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 64 KT 019 / 8 NM 13:05:00Z

 

[NCSNOW]

Saw on WU:

Euro and GFS Ensemble track density “Heat Maps”:

 

[accu35]

I'll check in from time to time today on Dorian, my dad is having heart surgery. Say a prayer.

 

[mrdaddyman]

NC and SC folks definitely not out of the woods yet with this one:

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ll make a guess and say the ridge out west trends back further in that direction and the one in the Atlantic comes in stronger. Florida landfall between Jacksonville and Palm Bay. If following hurricanes the past 3 years has taught me anything it’s that modeling is rather useless at this stage in the game. It’s all a guess

 

[Snowfan]

231
URNT15 KWBC 291410
NOAA2 1305A DORIAN HDOB 26 20190829
140100 2130N 06719W 6960 03167 0043 +097 //// 045035 041 047 012 01
140130 2129N 06718W 6907 03220 0028 +098 //// 062042 045 048 012 01
140200 2127N 06716W 6957 03155 0022 +100 //// 052039 040 050 011 01
140230 2126N 06714W 6996 03101 0007 +106 +104 045040 042 053 008 00
140300 2125N 06713W 6957 03130 9988 +108 +084 049044 045 053 002 00
140330 2123N 06711W 6967 03103 9965 +111 +107 045048 048 053 006 00
140400 2122N 06709W 6949 03099 9920 +124 +108 040049 051 059 008 00
140430 2121N 06708W 6951 03075 9892 +125 +115 041032 036 047 009 00
140500 2119N 06706W 6971 03040 9872 +137 +101 096006 008 027 005 03
140530 2117N 06706W 6978 03032 9860 +146 +096 211011 017 027 001 00
140600 2115N 06706W 6964 03062 9882 +136 +115 254035 049 044 005 00
140630 2113N 06706W 6996 03055 9936 +122 +114 256053 057 052 008 00
140700 2111N 06705W 6971 03102 9979 +109 +101 254051 052 053 008 03
140730 2110N 06704W 6968 03124 9994 +109 +085 253047 050 045 001 00
140800 2108N 06702W 6949 03159 0010 +103 +097 240049 057 043 005 00
140830 2107N 06700W 6968 03144 0021 +108 +074 237058 062 043 005 00
140900 2105N 06659W 6967 03156 0027 +112 +055 237063 064 044 006 00
140930 2104N 06657W 6963 03164 0027 +119 +054 239061 063 046 005 00
141000 2102N 06655W 6971 03157 0047 +107 +058 248060 061 046 004 00
141030 2101N 06654W 6967 03174 0068 +095 +058 248056 057 046 004 00
Second pass has the pressure down to 986 mb.

 

[deltadog03]

also look how the outflow is improving especially on west side. Hurricane is expanding more on west side more.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Just a note, although the Euro turns up FL on this run, it is actually closer to going much farther west. Troughing over the NE is much weaker and ridging over the top and stronger and that western ridge center is farther east. Dorian is slower still and is getting very close to stalling and getting caught under the western ridge and going to see Brent. Haha.

It really looks like this,

Faster= FL into GOM into northern gulf coast
Slow= FL hit, stall into GA
Slower= FL hit, stall, west into GOM, possible west gulf coast hit.

So if the western ridge is stronger and the storm slower and stalls this thing is going Westward? Just thinking of this being in the Gulf for an extended amount of time is scary.

 

[deltadog03]

Another key thing will be the ULL thats moving WEST and SW ahead of Dorian will be key on where it "tugs" the hurricane.

 

[Ethan80963!]