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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
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Pressure down to 986 mb.
New intensity forecast has it up to 130 mph.
INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
 
Looks like the 11am NHC update shifted slightly south. They don't seem to be giving any credence to any potential weakness in the ridge and being remarkably consistent. Am I the only one that has seen these get pulled north too many times not to be at least a little skeptical of this setup?

Ethan80963! said:
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SCWXGuy said:
Looks like the 11am NHC update shifted slightly south. They don't seem to be giving any credence to any potential weakness in the ridge and being remarkably consistent. Am I the only one that has seen these get pulled north too many times not to be skeptical of this setup?
Click to expand...
A little tad south and slightly slower. This is a difficult set up and as much as anyone can "guess" or "read" models, I for one am going with official (which I strongly suspect will shift north and perhaps somewhat east over the next 24 hours).
 
SCWXGuy said:
Looks like the 11am NHC update shifted slightly south. They don't seem to be giving any credence to any potential weakness in the ridge and being remarkably consistent. Am I the only one that has seen these get pulled north too many times not to be at least a little skeptical of this setup?
Click to expand...

NHC doesn't seem to be buying this going north at all. They have been pretty consistent with the track into Florida.
 
SCWXGuy said:
Looks like the 11am NHC update shifted slightly south. They don't seem to be giving any credence to any potential weakness in the ridge and being remarkably consistent. Am I the only one that has seen these get pulled north too many times not to be skeptical of this setup?
Click to expand...
The NHC always adjusts gradually. The biggest adjustment is the slower movement. I think that's why you don't get to see the potential north turn on their latest graphic. Give it another day and you will be able to see their thoughts about movement after landfall. Unfortunately, it looks to move very slowly as it approaches land.
 
pcbjr said:
A little tad south and slightly slower. This is a difficult set up and as much as anyone can "guess" or "read" models, I for one am going with official (which I strongly suspect will shift north and perhaps somewhat east over the next 24 hours).
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Lol....so you are really saying, "going with them today because they will change it"....I'm with ya. :)
 
packfan98 said:
The NHC always adjusts gradually. The biggest adjustment is the slower movement. I think that's why you don't get to see the potential north turn on their latest graphic. Give it another day and you will be able to see their thoughts about movement after landfall. Unfortunately, it looks to move very slowly as it approaches land.
Click to expand...

I'm not thinking of the scenario where it turns north after landfall, as the north turn will happen at some point. I'm thinking of the scenario where it comes up the east coast and grazes or even misses FL. We wait and see. I guess I have been expecting more slight adjustments north rather than south or unchanged.
 
packfan98 said:
The NHC always adjusts gradually. The biggest adjustment is the slower movement. I think that's why you don't get to see the potential north turn on their latest graphic. Give it another day and you will be able to see their thoughts about movement after landfall. Unfortunately, it looks to move very slowly as it approaches land.
Click to expand...
Actually the last 2 points on the chart are more like the Euro 00z....
 
SCWXGuy said:
I'm not thinking of the scenario where it turns north after landfall, as the north turn will happen at some point. I'm thinking of the scenario where it comes up the east coast and grazes or even misses FL. We wait and see. I guess I have been expecting more slight adjustments north rather than south or unchanged.
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Gotcha. The last position on the map is right in the middle of the state of FL approximately 100 miles inland. A shift of 100 miles to the east will get the coastal scraper you are talking about. It's well within the cone of uncertainty.
 
The NHC are using internal forecasting tools that are much better at blending the modeling, handling biases, and h500 than what we can. If you see a substantial shift in their track, it's because those tools, using trends from operational and ensembles, will begin to catch on usually after we see the trend begin on the operational runs.

Plus those guys are pretty smart too, and don't want to swing their cone back and forth too much per model run.
 
ICON seems to be initiallizing Dorian too weak. It doesn't show the current pressure forecasted until mid morning Saturday!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
Kind of unrelated but just curious, anybody remember how far out (in terms of days) we were when the forecast for Florence last year decided to stall near the coast and head west through Wilmington instead of a northwest strike through the Piedmont?
 
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