• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

It's gonna change again and again, but this will empty the shelves at every Publix in the State east of Tallahassee ...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh96-144.gif
 
Say whatever you want but I still think it's going to correct back west. Go look at all the cones in the hurricane archives of similar storm paths or even recent ones. The cones like to go to one extreme then usually come back the other way. I really don't think this is a Carolina landfall threat still. Its going to keep shifting so don't focus on the exact output right now in the long range. Focus on the larger features and their evolution.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Say whatever you want but I still think it's going to correct back west. Go look at all the cones in the hurricane archives of similar storm paths or even recent ones. The cones like to go to one extreme then usually come back the other way. I really don't think this is a Carolina landfall threat still. Its going to keep shifting so don't focus on the exact output right now in the long range. Focus on the larger features and their evolution.
Click to expand...
You and I apparently have the same song book!
 
GFS restrengthens the durn thing and takes it to OBX
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Say whatever you want but I still think it's going to correct back west. Go look at all the cones in the hurricane archives of similar storm paths or even recent ones. The cones like to go to one extreme then usually come back the other way. I really don't think this is a Carolina landfall threat still. Its going to keep shifting so don't focus on the exact output right now in the long range. Focus on the larger features and their evolution.
Click to expand...
I'm gonna agree with you on this with just one caveat, it's still gaining latitude and continues to be on the eastern edge of guidance.... it may turn hard left and make up for lost ground but the more latitude it gains the longer it takes to arrive at the EC and the better the chances of a stall just offshore. Of course IF that happened way too early to know what it would do after that. As remote a possibility it is I'm still giving @Rain Cold call a slight chance of happening.
 
The GFS scenario is bad for everyone from FL to NC. Goes into FL and then curves NE after going inland and rides up the coastline as a hurricane before going out to sea after NC. I think this could very well happen.
 
Overall I think the trends have been great overnight if it keeps trending east this may end only being a coastal scraper/Florida trouble up to the OBX. With little to no rain for big cities like Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh. This wouldn’t be a bad outcome maybe it can continue east and only be a coastal county ordeal With the exception of Florida likely seeing more widespread rains and wind.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top