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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Remember the euro last year over played the ridge on Florence and took her ssw along the coast when the fv5 was spot on.


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so it dives WSW into the Northern Miami area and then turns NW up the Peninsula on the Euro, we've seen this in other runs

Ugly ugly run but probably no Gulf at least

the 1926 Miami hurricane would today be the costliest hurricane ever
 
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WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE 06Z RUN IN THE AM. RIGHT NOW YOU CAROLINA PEOPLES GET SOME JUICE
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Just like the 0Z Euro, the 0Z EPS remains a significant threat to the southern half of FL but many more members then turn up/near the peninsula or never even make it to FL vs the 12Z. Many fewer into the Gulf. Significantly higher threat even up into Carolinas vs 12Z run indicated. This more northward/less westward trend seems to be what 0Z consensus is saying.
 
GaWx said:
Just like the 0Z Euro, the 0Z EPS remains a significant threat to the southern half of FL but many more members then turn up/near the peninsula or never even make it to FL vs the 12Z. Many fewer into the Gulf. Significantly higher threat even up into Carolinas vs 12Z run indicated. This more northward/less westward trend seems to be what 0Z consensus is saying.
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Very interesting

I'm gonna withhold judgement til morning in case they switch back(no joke I've seen that before) but i wonder if this could trend back towards OTS if this alleged sharp turn happens sooner

The longer it takes to get to Florida the more likely it turns north clearly

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GaWx said:
Just like the 0Z Euro, the 0Z EPS remains a significant threat to the southern half of FL but many more members then turn up/near the peninsula or never even make it to FL vs the 12Z. Many fewer into the Gulf. Significantly higher threat even up into Carolinas vs 12Z run indicated. This more northward/less westward trend seems to be what 0Z consensus is saying.
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I agree the trend the last few runs have seemed to shift from across Florida into the GOM to a more "traditional" Florida/SE threat. Living in eastern NC this is what we watch for, the inevitable march up the coast of landfall points.....not that I am saying that will happen here only that most of our hits were suppose to hit Florida before they were suppose to hit Hilton Head, then Charleston before finally hitting NC.....it would only take that last Euro track shifting 75-100 miles east to really change things up for the Carolinas.....

Earlier I was kind of letting myself buy into the Florida into GOM scenario and wanted to write this one off but now after that Euro run I am sucked back in.....verbatim the Euro brings the center right over MBY still at 993mb though at that point its been onshore 4 days.
 
Still struggling with dry air.

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GaWx said:
Just like the 0Z Euro, the 0Z EPS remains a significant threat to the southern half of FL but many more members then turn up/near the peninsula or never even make it to FL vs the 12Z. Many fewer into the Gulf. Significantly higher threat even up into Carolinas vs 12Z run indicated. This more northward/less westward trend seems to be what 0Z consensus is saying.
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I agree. There is still a 345 mile difference in the landfall. Just because NHC wants to "split the baby" doesn't mean its necessarily right. At this point the only thing they have in common near land is a curve north. I haven't bought in to GFS solution as Jax...it would make history for sure, but its tough to eye the needle at that corner. More likely it bounces off to Carolina with a weakness in the ridge.
Legacy has continued to produce a coast rider, over and over again. A jolt to the east and the eye stays off shore which would be devastating with the possible intensity this storm can generate.. landfall of all three is midnight Tuesday. Maybe by Sunday we have a better idea.
 
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Just a note, although the Euro turns up FL on this run, it is actually closer to going much farther west. Troughing over the NE is much weaker and ridging over the top and stronger and that western ridge center is farther east. Dorian is slower still and is getting very close to stalling and getting caught under the western ridge and going to see Brent. Haha.

It really looks like this,

Faster= FL into GOM into northern gulf coast
Slow= FL hit, stall into GA
Slower= FL hit, stall, west into GOM, possible west gulf coast hit.
 
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Looks like we got some good agreement on a recurve after the FL landfall. There’s a shortwave that’s on most of the models that causes a weakness for the storm to slide through to the ne.


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I’ve been out of the loop for a bit! Quick update? Is this going to bring W Carolinas any rain?
 
metwannabe said:
Back and forth we go



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Yep....
06z Legacy is a full blown coast rider....and has been leaning to that solution for 48 hours, maybe longer. frankly I think the convergence will be toward this solution in the end. Holy cow, what a ride that will be....multiple possible landfall.
 
Still sticking to my Floyd Track hunch from yesterday morning. Also nothing pretty about a major Hurricane hit. But for Miami, if you have to have one, better served getting it from the NE direction as opposed to SE direction.

Still think this thing puts on brakes right at the NE Florida Coast and stalls, crawls up the coast cutting across coastal plain of SC /NC on way ots.

I do think it gets a little closer to Florida Coast before stalling, We'll see

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