Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[BirdManDoomW]

Pre-event western NC early as MONDAY on the GFS.

 

[FortMillSCWx]

Pre-event western NC early as MONDAY on the GFS.

wuh?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

All that rain and wind, and potential severe to boot. Ow. This is a rough run for North FL/coastal and parts of inland Georgia.

 

[ncskywarn]

Impact Georgia-Florida line at hour 120.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

wuh?

Upslope rains break out before from south-west Virginia to Georgia mountains well in advance. Dry Charlotte to GSP south and east until the main event.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[BirdManDoomW]

GFS coming up east of Atlanta Georgia so far. Deform band sets up across the mountains. Wow.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

FWIW 0z Gfs shows exact same track as the 18z Navgem?

 

[Arcc]

Sorry it's been a long day I got it backwards sorry about that.

I deleted all references to it being slower.

Happens to all of us. That said cycling between the "previous run" and "next run" buttons on TT give you a quick and easy comparison as does the "Trend" button.

 

[Shaggy]

FWIW 0z Gfs shows exact same track as the 18z Navgem?

Looking at the 500mb maps it looks like a decent shift east in the high placement near bermuda. If the high does set up east and weaker that's the only pathway for a curve up the coast.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I would toss this silly run. Huge flood and major inland impact. Unlikely IMO and too far out.

 

[Shaggy]

I would toss this silly run. Huge flood and major inland impact. Unlikely IMO and too far out.

It's not silly. It's just as reasonable a run as any other at this time frame. Most models are showing a slow down and recurve after landfall.

 

[accu35]

With a blend with all the models, I can easily see south/central Florida landfall. It still has a pretty decent chance of crossing over into the gulf, and how far west it goes before the turn will be the big question when that time gets here

 

[Meteorologist1999]

It's not silly. It's just as reasonable a run as any other at this time frame. Most models are showing a slow down and recurve after landfall.

The slower it is to make landfall the more I think it will have time for the trough to catch up with it and it will make a sharp NE turn

 

[Snowflowxxl]

With a blend with all the models, I can easily see south/central Florida landfall. It still has a pretty decent chance of crossing over into the gulf, and how far west it goes before the turn will be the big question when that time gets here

I know what your saying, but not one model had it in the gulf tonight so far lol

 

[ncskywarn]

I know what your saying, but not one model had it in the gulf tonight so far lol

Got the UKIE and the EURO left

 

[accu35]

I know what your saying, but not one model had it in the gulf tonight so far lol

That's why I was saying "pretty good chance" lol

 

[accu35]

Since were on the "north/south" here, CMC is little south at landfall

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Since were on the "north/south" here, CMC is little south at landfall

If you can tell sir it’s feeling the weakness off trough as it approaches landfall and slow down.

 

[GaWx]

0z CMC 126 is 400 miles ESE of the 12Z 138. Just a slight change. Instead of going into the Gulf, it stalls and then turns up the peninsula.