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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

KyloG said:
Looking at all hurricanes that tracked over Grand Bahama...looks like 8 hit conus and 1 missed. Things that make you go hmmm...

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Where did you make this?

This is what I was trying to say this morning. The climo of storms as you get farther and farther west of 75 says US landfall. Sometimes you have to wonder if the models are right or wrong vs history
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ICON would be a disaster for Miami (edit: maybe mainly north of there in South FL), it does have the stall but later and it stalls for hours over south Florida.

Needless to say, it's a way south outlier though.
 
Looking at all the globals you have several from the B team that hit conus but GFS/Euro/UK don't. Could the backups win one....

hits: CMC, GFS-L, ICON, HWRF
miss: Euro/GFS/UK
 
KyloG said:
Looking at all the globals you have several from the B team that hit conus but GFS/Euro/UK don't. Could the backups win one....

hits: CMC, GFS-L, ICON, HWRF
miss: Euro/GFS/UK
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When in the history of models has the models stopped changing at 3 days and 5 days? Never.....more to come and more to talk about. Waiting for T-1....
 
I took a look at the 18z Nam 250mb layer. When I was looking at the MSLP track I noticed that the storm started moving west rather quickly and found no major difference in the H5 layer. In the 250mb layer, I noticed that the Jet dug much farther south boosting the strength of the jet (See Orange) This represents a strong jet current which would definitely cause Dorian to move W NW very quickly. On the other hand, the jet to the north should pick up the strong jet letter it moves back OTS. The key would be due to a stronger deeper trough in the jet would bring Dorian farther north before turning east. I understand that this is Still the Nam and take only Verbatim with this post. However, this would be a good example of one way Dorian could go Inland over NCNAM 18Z.png
 
Stormsfury said:
We see it from time to time but this is one heavy loaded tropical cyclone and like trying to stop Niagara Falls from flowing.
What bothers me is the whole WAR is analyzed stronger than the initialization. We've seen these time and time again with the reluctant nature of these on model vs actual time and time again
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you know as well as I do that happens a lot. That piece of information will be crucial going forward too.
 
SD said:
Where did you make this?

This is what I was trying to say this morning. The climo of storms as you get farther and farther west of 75 says US landfall. Sometimes you have to wonder if the models are right or wrong vs history
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fair points for sure.
 
My gfs parents live in west palm, they were going to evacuate, now after the last few nhc advisories they are thinking of staying.

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SD said:
My gfs parents live in west palm, they were going to evacuate, now after the last few nhc advisories they are thinking of staying.

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They probably should be ready just in case and at first I thought you were brother to the GFS Lol....
 
That jet is nosing down, there's interaction and you can see precip breaking out in Cen NC in response... I bet we're about to see another left of track flood potential this run. If it doesn't get pulled inland as @Ollie Williams pointed out with the NAM a few post back

1567289035472.png
 
Take that version but start it slightly south, directly over Bahamas like Euro version. The coast scrapper comes back in play. Scary situation playing out...
 
metwannabe said:
That jet is nosing down, there's interaction and you can see precip breaking out in Cen NC in response... I bet we're about to see another left of track flood potential this run. If it doesn't get pulled inland as @Ollie Williams pointed out with the NAM a few post back

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Yep jet steak to the north, divergence expanding over the eastern half of NC , shortwave digging to the southwest of the system, weak front providing an inland focus. That's a good setup for a widespread 3-10 east of US1

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