HR48 its def a bit south vs yesterdays 12z run...about the same speed, maybe slightly faster?
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Thank you! Notice how the models are starting to show that SW dive a little bit again in the short term. ITs def. south on todays run vs yesterdays 12z run so far.
Sits there for almost 12 hours, finally nudging NW @54.....slowly
Correction: It's just meandering still sitting there @60
Still stalled.... oh boy
GeorgiaGirl
Member
actually looks like a north turn at 72 to me (but slowly), want to see another frame before deciding on either side here...
edit: the opening for OTS is there though.
edit: the opening for OTS is there though.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Thinking OTS based off hr 96 and further east than yesterday's 12z and the previous 0z but we will see.
So the GFS suite said nah nvm and scooted closer to the coast, hurricane models shifted well west, but the EURO actually goes east so far.
So the GFS suite said nah nvm and scooted closer to the coast, hurricane models shifted well west, but the EURO actually goes east so far.
Honestly 12z Euro looks identical to 12z yesterday close to coast. I won’t call this no easy trend.
Downeastnc
Member
GFS and Euro 120 plot very close together.....
Looks to stay just offshore
And then ots.... for now the east trend has stopped, still offshore but no shifts east.
pcbjr
Member
confessing total confusion on this whole thing ... except one thing is for certain, this storm is not conducive to sleep and/or a rational thought process (invert them and you end up in the same place ... LOL) ... 
Would think good news for Florida and the way the Euro is trending hopefully GA/SC. Maybe OBX has to deal with it but it keeps ticking east. Only wrinkle I could see is if it starts ticking north sooner in the Bahamas instead of taking 48 hours to rot. But we won't know that until Monday/Tuesday.
Precip FWIW. But one consistent with modeling of Dorian is that day 4-5 model progs haven't verified.
I had a couple of friends fly up from Melbourne. They are super ticked to say the least.
I had a couple of friends fly up from Melbourne. They are super ticked to say the least.
Yeah I said not shifts east but was solely focused on NC, it has definitely trended more offshore from Fl, Ga and even SC...just takes more of a N path towards us before it turns.
Of course atm Dorian still chugging along, crossing 74W now....
Euro is furthest East at the 12z, which although is the ideal solution, seems reality may lie between the tight scrape of the GFS and the gracious miss of the Euro.
I think an earlier move N on the Euro while in the Bahamas could scare the SE coast. Though, Dorian sure has done a good job missing land...first Hispaniola, then PR then FL and now maybe NC/SC coast.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Might just be staying offshore, but still too close for comfort for FL to NC. Would not take much for it to hit somewhere if the models are too far east just a bit.
Downeastnc
Member
Timing is key, 12 hrs one way or the other is the difference between a Floyd track thru NC or 100 miles off Hatteras....and c the chances the models have it all right in the 4-5 day range now is silly its gonna move around some we wont be sure till Monday or so, if the models all have it offshore then I will feel better about a miss.
I think everyone in the SC and NC need to prepare for Coast hugger due to friction. Also if tough slow down even a little bit game on. It’s always best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Shaggy
Member
Am i wrong in thinking that if the euro didnt stall for so long in the Bahamas that the turn east would be further north because the ridge to his east wouldnt have broken down yet?
A faster Dorian gets north before it erodes?
F-5
Member
Mixed signals from the Euro. First 48 hrs seems to make LF more likely. The stop on a dime, 90 degree turn makes it less likely through the end of the run.
That stop, 90 degree turn is hard for me to believe. Too many variables have to line up just perfectly for that to happen. Seems a more NW drift closer to the FL coast would be more likely than the stall and pivot.
That stop, 90 degree turn is hard for me to believe. Too many variables have to line up just perfectly for that to happen. Seems a more NW drift closer to the FL coast would be more likely than the stall and pivot.
pcbjr
Member
the only thing missing here is a loop de loop that no model even suggests ... would fit right into this Warhol canvas ...
Shaggy
Member
Henry2326
Member
I don’t like cranky much lol, and pattern is different (H5) and track, but uncertainty is kinda the same, just something to think of
Other than the hurricane models, everything stays offshore....
EPS.
EPS is east of 0z and almost all members stay offshore, close call and gonna scare some folks but as of now offshore. I don't think it's coming back west, models seem locked in imho
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Brick Tamland
Guest
They seemed locked in 4 days out? Okay.
Actually looks like less members made landfall
SCWXGuy
Member
What is with the TABS model constantly showing the loop over FL from run to run before OTS? ? Clearly not happening but seems it should be disabled
Honestly, I think now is the time frame to pay attention to Short range models such and NAM and also HWFI and HMON.
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F-5
Member
I don't think the fact that it CAN happen is in question. It's how likely is it happen? The fact that it has been 20 years since Dennis kinds argues it doesn't happen very often. The slower drift towards the FL coast most other models are showing DOES happen quite frequently.
I don’t think we will any major jumps over 100mi. If we’re going to get a different solution It probably will be over gradual ticks.