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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

SCWXGuy said:
What is with the TABS model constantly showing the loop over FL from run to run before OTS? ? Clearly not happening but seems it should be disabled
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Ignore it, it's a statistical model basically, I believe they serve some purpose for the winds (shear possibly?) but useless for track
 
There could absolutely be some shifts as we go forward, but there's a good consensus now across guidance in terms of the general track idea. Maybe they're all missing something. We'll see pretty soon.
 
Rain Cold said:
There could absolutely be some shifts as we go forward, but there's a good consensus now across guidance in terms of the general track idea. Maybe they're all missing something. We'll see pretty soon.
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Of course it could change but something I've seen over many years.... rarely does a winter threat that has trended NW come back SE and rarely does a TC that trends ots come back west.
 
Sandbar said:
After Matthew in 2016, these models aren't locked in on jack squat for NC / SC IMO. Too many variables that push and pull these things that pop up out of nowhere. You are still talking about a storm 5 days away. Impressive looking storm either way
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The realest thing I heard in forum all day.
 
F-5 said:
Mixed signals from the Euro. First 48 hrs seems to make LF more likely. The stop on a dime, 90 degree turn makes it less likely through the end of the run.

That stop, 90 degree turn is hard for me to believe. Too many variables have to line up just perfectly for that to happen. Seems a more NW drift closer to the FL coast would be more likely than the stall and pivot.
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Turning on a dime after a long quasi-stall is not that unusual. Doing that when moving fast is different.

Anyway, 12Z Euro trends are clearly encouraging. I don't think anyone could argue with that.
 
pcbjr said:
Almost time for everyone to take a 5 minute break ... catch a breath of fresh air ...
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Cant believe we may have 3 to 4 more days of hard model watching before we know the final outcome. This has been an exhausting storm to try and pin down.
 
Shaggy said:
Cant believe we may have 3 to 4 more days of hard model watching before we know the final outcome. This has been an exhausting storm to try and pin down.
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with 3 - 4 or maybe even 5, that's the "catch a breath of fresh air" Rx ... plus, Lord knows what we'll see tomorrow ... :oops:
 
Euro cut back on rain totals here but didn't really change the wind gust forecast and the track wasn't that different than 0z

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SD said:
Euro cut back on rain totals here but didn't really change the wind gust forecast and the track wasn't that different than 0z

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Less interaction with trough? Getting away from the left of track precip maximum maybe

and breezy..

1567283592001.png
 
SD said:
Yeah it's no longer a left of track setup for our area which stinks as far as rain.

Btw the nam is moving NNE between 48 and 60

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Yeah I saw, does kinda a mini loop
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I saw, does kinda a mini loop
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I guess after looking at the models I should clean up my statement about it's no longer left of track. It becomes LOT on the gfs and legacy but it's almost too late for this area and would be more up your way into southern VA.

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KyloG said:
UK ensembles.

View attachment 22635
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If those tracks were of the GEFS or EPS, I'd be quite concerned. But with them being the left biased UK ens and with the mean being so far left of the GEFS/EPS, I'm not at all concerned from seeing these. Furthermore, actual is already running north of most of these members per another source.
 
SD said:
I guess after looking at the models I should clean up my statement about it's no longer left of track. It becomes LOT on the gfs and legacy but it's almost too late for this area and would be more up your way into southern VA.

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Oh yeah on the GFS it still is, I was just speaking of the Euro... honestly if memory serves, the GFS has done better in that regard then the Euro. Either I'm the one person on here who is sick of rain so I'm sure I'll figure out a way to pile on a few inches
 
Remains at 150 mph

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

205408_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Stormsfury said:
It's still steady state moving just N of due west. Forecast advisory out negligible changes with a sharper right turn near the SC after 96 hours.
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I agree, I just wonder about this screeching halt. It does happen sometimes, but its not very common.
 
I could be wrong but isn’t a strong hurricane like this one hard to bring to stop? And move north on a Dime? OTS will not surprise me though


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deltadog03 said:
I agree, I just wonder about this screeching halt. It does happen sometimes, but its not very common.
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We see it from time to time but this is one heavy loaded tropical cyclone and like trying to stop Niagara Falls from flowing.
What bothers me is the whole WAR is analyzed stronger than the initialization. We've seen these time and time again with the reluctant nature of these on model vs actual time and time again
 
Jessy89 said:
I could be wrong but isn’t a strong hurricane like this one hard to bring to stop? And move north on a Dime? OTS will not surprise me though


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It is subject to the steering currents in the atmosphere. When they collapse, even the big ones can stall. But they will likely lose strength as upwelling begins.
 
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