Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The shear will be moving in tandem w/ the storm because some of that is being imparted by Dorian's own ULAC.
I anticipate a center reformation or two over the coming days...
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
The shear will be moving in tandem w/ the storm because some of that is being imparted by Dorian's own ULAC.
I anticipate a center reformation or two over the coming days...
Still looks pretty juicy to me.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don't be fooled by the convective blow-ups associated w/ Dorian of late. There's a lot more to it than that and recon confirms that under the hood Dorian is becoming less organized
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, the 6z Euro so far thru hr 90:
Dorian remains ill-defined the next few days but begins to intensify markedly once it reaches the Bahamas
Dorian remains ill-defined the next few days but begins to intensify markedly once it reaches the Bahamas
How much for Nassau?
Latest IR loop on tidbits looks like its increasing in size somewhat
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The last few recon passes clearly show Dorian is weaker than it was last night when the last HH mission was delving into the storm.
Dorian may very well open up into a tropical wave over the next day or two.
Dorian may very well open up into a tropical wave over the next day or two.
predicting US landfall as a high end TS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A new center appears to be forming further to the north, increasing the chances that Dorian misses Hispaniola entirely.
NWMSGuy
Member
11AM Discussion:
Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft
flight-level and SFMR surface wind data.
The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There
is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center
have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained
intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge
located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently
located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken while digging southeastward across the central
Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in
Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the
west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward
turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low.
For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to
push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The
NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on
this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an
average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.
Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the
mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant
development in the short term. However, the models continue to
indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are
expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the
forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not
showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more
robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and
5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and
into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity
forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model
and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large
spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the
intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5.
Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft
flight-level and SFMR surface wind data.
The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There
is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center
have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained
intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge
located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently
located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken while digging southeastward across the central
Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in
Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the
west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward
turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low.
For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to
push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The
NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on
this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an
average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.
Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the
mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant
development in the short term. However, the models continue to
indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are
expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the
forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not
showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more
robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and
5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and
into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity
forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model
and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large
spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the
intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5.
ICON is looking practically copy/paste thru 36hrs
ICON has it a bit north than the last run through 51 hours.
coming in a touch stronger it would appear (thru 66)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This upper level pattern is amazing in the Bahamas around day 3-4, hopefully Dorian is too weak to take advantage of it.
This run is faster, further NW so far
ICON is looking scary @132 hours. It has a 974 mb Hurricane about to hit south Florida.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like the ICON says no luck on that not happening.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's good that the ICON so far is a south outlier.
In other news it looks like to me on the GFS for the first time I'm looking closely, while Dorian degenerates into a wave, it misses Hispaniola entirely at least on the vort and wind map to me.
In other news it looks like to me on the GFS for the first time I'm looking closely, while Dorian degenerates into a wave, it misses Hispaniola entirely at least on the vort and wind map to me.
