GeorgiaGirl
Member
$5 says that this will not be the solution (but it'd be a huge issue if it was eventually):
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Yeah, that looks bad at the end of the run.
Henry2326
Member
Both Icon and Navgem have extended the influence southward of the Northeast high.
I wouldn’t say it’s a complete outlier in the sense of track. It’s stronger so a farther southwest track is more likely. It’s possible that if the other models latch on to a stronger system, they too will correct SW.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The GFS seems to be getting more organized with regeneration run by run now.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
This thing was at 1000 MB (high end TS) and then a 10-14 MB drop in the next two frames as it heads to Florida? If the Bahamas being a juicy environment is a factor here, well dang.
GFS has a category 1 hurricane hitting north Florida @126 hours.
Henry2326
Member
A tad north of 06z and a little slower. Probably just enough time over water to pump it up a bit. Lord, help us, if that high rides high. Even more time over water would not be good.
Henry2326
Member
Legacy in the same spot at same intensity.
I notice its ticking north over time. Maybe a northern Fl or Ga Coast landfall could be possible?
Henry2326
Member
Absolutely....all depends on how low the northeast high decides to ride.
Another thing I see is that BOTH Gfs models are on agreement on track into Northern FL then a stall right onshore!!
Henry2326
Member
Euro had the same path at 00z, but no intensity. Lets see if it comes on board today.
Henry2326
Member
3 day stall so far in south GA.....that's a ton of water.
Can't spell GFS without "playing catch up"
Ethan80963!
Member
fwiw GEM goes into central Florida 
Also after this it recurves north going through GA and SC
Also after this it recurves north going through GA and SC
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like the ICON is the southern most run, and the majority still have it going into FL, just further north.
That ICON run going across the southern tip of FL and into the Gulf could be a major problem.
That ICON run going across the southern tip of FL and into the Gulf could be a major problem.
Ethan80963!
Member
Also fwiw the JMA has the system which the previous run had nothing
Something else to watch. The interaction with Hispaniola may prove to strengthen the low level circulation and add some very erratic motion. Good luck sorting that out.