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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

So this thing isn't going north with that ridge building in place... models tend to break ridges down too quick, good 'ol SER is usually stronger than advertised, as @Arcc has been saying over and over, if this system gets stronger there is more of a likelihood that it pumps that ridge more and pushes it further west. Just my 2 cents worth, I don't care what you do with it. ...Carry on

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BirdManDoomW said:
Climo..more storms just go north and east compared to south and west. ICON is either going to score a big win or a big fail...which I’m going with the latter. Now into the extended, one can usually assume if it hits Florida it’s prob not gonna go deep inland for Atlanta or western NC it usually trends east into the Sandhills of NC. Just my two cents save it.
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Good explanation. :)
 
Euro is coming in stronger this run looks about on par as far as location when compared to 00Z.ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_5.png
 
euro
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metwannabe said:
So this thing isn't going north with that ridge building in place... models tend to break ridges down too quick, good 'ol SER is usually stronger than advertised, as @Arcc has been saying over and over, if this system gets stronger there is more of a likelihood that it pumps that ridge more and pushes it further west. Just my 2 cents worth, I don't care what you do with it. ...Carry on

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As stout as the high, I think the only chance is the ridge retracting northward.....or the models have it wrong is more likely. The models have ticked this thing north for the past 48 hours. Just saying, it might continue doing that.,,.not to NJ, but possibly Jax. I hear ya on the science, but the models are chasing this thing.
 
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metwannabe said:
So this thing isn't going north with that ridge building in place... models tend to break ridges down too quick, good 'ol SER is usually stronger than advertised, as @Arcc has been saying over and over, if this system gets stronger there is more of a likelihood that it pumps that ridge more and pushes it further west. Just my 2 cents worth, I don't care what you do with it. ...Carry on

View attachment 22095
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Folks tend to forget to look NW and up top ... great post!
Phil
 
Dorian now looks the part of a struggling TS. Gone is the solid CDO and it has given way to spotty hot towers.

You can see the dry air slowly eating away at dorians moisture envelope. The core is now reduced to pop up towers as it tries to fend it off.

This afternoon Dmin will likely be brutal for Dorian in the coming hours further eroding the core.

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The weaker it gets now the slower it will be to recover in the Bahamas. Even so we could easily be looking at a strengthening TS or minimal cane on approach to Florida.
 
How many other storms have hit the US three times? This one could hit Puerto Rico, Florida and go into the GOM for a third.
 
It really can't be overstated how favorable the upper-level environment will be for Dorian when it reaches the Bahamas in 3-4 days being flanked by upper lows over multiple quadrants. I'm worried if Dorian actually ticks even a little further north still its outflow will also be able to tap into the mid-latitude jet in addition to the upper level lows that will already provide amazing ventilation. (yikes)

Also given Dorian's small size and the high oceanic heat content + SSTs in the Bahamas this is a really good recipe for rapid intensification. Residents in the southeastern US & especially Florida probably need to start paying attention because the forecast could change a lot the next few days.
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