Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Arcc]

Just noticed the 6z HMON has the center reorganize just north of Hispaniola and make a beeline for Miami. So far the 12z looks about the same. I don’t trust them, but the two hurricane models are leading the way with development so far.

 

[Ethan80963!]

UK going in for south/central Florida

 

[Henry2326]

UK going in for south/central FloridaView attachment 22091

At 973....that's telling....we have escalation from everyone but Euro......waiting

 

[Meteorologist1999]

UK going in for south/central FloridaView attachment 22091

Look like 12z Uk also shifted North

 

[Henry2326]

Look like 12z Uk also shifted North

I won't be surprised if we get some more shifts north by Saturday....

 

[Ethan80963!]

Look like 12z Uk also shifted North

Yep and slowed down
New


Previous

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[Storm5]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[jackendrickwx]

View attachment 22094

Noticing a lot of recurve tracks up through GA/Carolinas

 

[Snowfan]

HMON has a strong tropical storm hitting south Florida @120 hours.

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Martinique.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Dominica.

 

[Brick Tamland]

View attachment 22094

If it takes that middle path of the models and goes into the Gulf, it looks like it could be a little stronger the second time it comes in along the panhandle.

 

[Metwannabe]

I won't be surprised if we get some more shifts north by Saturday....

Any reasoning as to why you won't be surprised if we get more north shifts?

 

[Metwannabe]

Something else to watch. The interaction with Hispaniola may prove to strengthen the low level circulation and add some very erratic motion. Good luck sorting that out.

Voice of reason..... too bad some want hear it.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

I really think GA and SC coast need to keep an eye on this storm!! Please don’t let your guard down.

 

[Snowfan]

HWRF:

 

[Henry2326]

Any reasoning as to why you won't be surprised if we get more north shifts?

Its riding the ridge and any change to the ridge will move it....if it changes, more likely it moves back north rather than any further south.

 

[Metwannabe]

Its riding the ridge and any change to the ridge will move it....if it changes, more likely it moves back north rather than any further south.

But why would the more likely change be north as opposed to south, why do you think that ridge will be weaker and allow a northward turn?

 

[Henry2326]

But why would the more likely change be north as opposed to south, why do you think that ridge will be weaker and allow a northward turn?

Because models are squirrelly and it's already stout. Would be a barn burner to go further.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

But why would the more likely change be north as opposed to south, why do you think that ridge will be weaker and allow a northward turn?

Climo..more storms just go north and east compared to south and west. ICON is either going to score a big win or a big fail...which I’m going with the latter. Now into the extended, one can usually assume if it hits Florida it’s prob not gonna go deep inland for Atlanta or western NC it usually trends east into the Sandhills of NC. Just my two cents save it.