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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
So the Gulf disturbance is becoming a key player even more. Any changes will result in more pin wheeling erratic motions. ICON CMC and now EURO. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it further west from Louisiana into Tennessee.
couldn't have said it better myself..it’s hurricane season, and it’s fun, but it would benefit all to hold off on the proverbial pants explosions
what the EURO is showing is a weeklong event. wow
Snowflowxxl
Member
Katrina 2.0?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Wow. After landfall big NE turn to N GA and Carolinas.
?? Looks to weaken a lot with the stall then due east not north.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
RollTide18
Member
Well the good thing is that it’ll probably change.
Bad news, if it’s right? I’m outta here.
Bad news, if it’s right? I’m outta here.
Looks like the entire Gulf coast needs to watch out for this one. I don't like to make this comparison, but the Euro's path on 12z would take this in a Katrina direction. Hopefully things still change.
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pcbjr
Member
Dude, you are preaching to the choir, if not the bishop ...Never put money on the table going against the SER!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The rain will be the big threat inland. And with that track, anyone on the southern or eastern escarpment should start building an ark if this becomes a trend.
Brent
Member
I expect a south shift at 5
But a good trend is a stall just inland to practically kill the storm and head due east will little to no Appalachian impact. It’s possible it escapes out to Myrtle Beach. That was certainly no Ivan track. But not ruling one out either after seeing the CMC.
NoSnowATL
Member
Euro goes straight into AL
Would this track IF right be a worst then Last year?
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Even if it kills the storms intensity or wind speed, a stall is the worst case for the apps. I mean look even 2 days before the storm gets close, upslope is already kicking in. Not good.
I hate to say it, but that is a classic looking upper level pattern for a big hit on the South East Coast. A strong hurricane moving westward underneath a ridge of high pressure to the North is about as classic is you one or maybe not want to see if you're in Florida in the South east
Harder to bet against the euro but at this juncture I still would. HWRF always tries to spit out these tight eye pinhole solutions and it’s just laughable. Every hurricane is not going to be a buzzsaw and HWRF is always the last to get that memo
Yes, it's mainly the general upper air pattern that you describe that gives me a bad feeling about Dorian.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I would have to say it's up in the air. The further south in FL it makes landfall, the stronger it'll be in the Gulf as it'll have more time. I doubt it'll be a cat 5 if it were to make it there like Michael was, but a major would be still bad.
Ethan80963!
Member
Ethan80963!
Member
Here's the GEFS members I don't think I saw them yet
Here's CMC ensembles
Here's CMC ensembles
For the short term, yes, but as we have been talking about for days that if it misses the islands and goes ballistic the outflow will pump the ridge to its north and get a farther west solution.
Good to see a lot of out to sea members. But the threat stretches all the way back to Texas.
Avalanche
Member
No land mass to speak of for a while with her.
That isn’t good.
Avalanche
Member
That first one hitting Miami/West Palm Beach and then New Orleans would be a large population to be impacted. You're right. That isn't good at all. The second one, may be the better solution, IDK.
towers firing on the southern part of the eyewall now trying to close off as it heads north of PR.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html
For real time weather video check out snapchat and slide over to the US Virgin Islands. Beautiful area despite the hurricane conditions. Lots of users uploading short clips of the storm.
12z eps. 
pcbjr
Member
can't and won't use certain 4 letter words, so read between the lines ... one of the biggest cluster f's I've seen in a long time ...
What impact would that have on Tampa Bay
pcbjr
Member
Not being flippant ... 1st, by the time it got from wherever to Tampa, assuming it were an east coast landfall, you'd most likely have a high end TS or low end 'Cane, and Tampa is more than built for that; 2nd, depending on strength and if the COC were north or south of the Bay, you'd either see a lot of water going into the Gulf or the Hillsborough River getting way out of its banks ... in other words, too soon to tell.
Phil, it would be a haul form B'ham to your abode but if help becomes needed to prepare just shout out. I have PTO days and it's a long weekend. Otherwise know the prayers have already begun for all who could be impacted.