Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[ForsythSnow]

Eyewall on the radar is starting to thicken, come together, and shrink. Not good.

 

[accu35]

Euro south??

 

[Brent]

Euro looks like its just gonna plow across the Peninsula

 

[BHS1975]

Euro south??

Slower timing.


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[RBR71]

Euro wsw as it crosses the peninsula

 

[Brent]

Yikes

 

[accu35]

Euro says watch out Gulf

 

[ncskywarn]

Euro south??

Yes South of Lake Okeechobee this run. 00Z had it North of the lake.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Simon brewer says Dorian won’t last, but that ULL isn’t strong at all, I’d say maybe some weakening then RI

 

[Brick Tamland]

If it goes across FL and into the Gulf, it could get even stronger for a second landfall. That is probably the worst case scenario, especially if the HWRF is right with the intensity.

 

[accu35]

Icon and Cmc may be on to something

 

[pcbjr]

Probably by 5:00 AM tomorrow some of this will be sorted out ... until then, it's a poker game and the deal is still going down ...

 

[Brent]

I don't even see a weakness on the Euro it may just keep going west

 

[ForsythSnow]

Simon brewer says Dorian won’t last, but that ULL isn’t strong at all View attachment 22203

That dude doesn't have a clue.

 

[Brent]

No good news

 

[KyloG]

Big ridge in the west directing northerly flow. So we have a stout slow crawling, trapped hurricane in the gulf with GA/FL in its sights.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

12z HWRF wowView attachment 22199View attachment 22200

Lmao..I can always toss the HWRF with the utmost confidence

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That dude doesn't have a clue.

Lmao I agree with you, I think he should focus on mesocyclones

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Early guess is globals are overamping the system causing it to tug poleward on modeling. If I was a betting man I would say this thing ends up on the southern end of guidance

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If it goes across FL and into the Gulf, it could get even stronger for a second landfall. That is probably the worst case scenario, especially if the HWRF is right with the intensity.

HWRF is never close

 

[RBR71]

 

[Brent]

This is not gonna end well

 

[weatherboyy]

ECMWF copy ICON

 

[ontherocks]

I thought the models (some) were initializing it weaker which was causing a south tug. If its stronger than modeled won't it pull north? I don't know much about it, just trying to sort it out.....

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Big yike at the Euro solution. Two landfalls with the second being stronger.

 

[Philstorm91]

View attachment 22208

So we now have Euro and ICON trending to a GOM path. Still about a week out from a potential second landfall, but the trend is concerning for those on the northern Gulf coast.

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[Snowflowxxl]

Euro is worst case scenario.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Watch out Apps. The upslope with this would be biblical.

 

[GaWx]

@accu35 may need to batten down the hatches if 12Z Euro is right

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Brent]

Michael part 2

 

[RBR71]

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Economic devastation likely for Labor Day sales unless your Lowe’s or Home Depot. The threat has increased for everyone up to the blue ridge mountains if it enters the Gulf.

 

[ncskywarn]

Second landfall incoming into the panhandle.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

The size of this thing would place the entire state of Georgia on the dangerous east side. May miss north of there in the Carolinas.

 

[GaWx]

Devastating rainfall W FL Panhandle and S AL on 12Z Euro with 15" some areas.

 

[Snow_chaser]

Wow, there’s so many places along the coast that haven’t even begun to recover from Michael. I don’t want anyone to have to experience this possible monster, but definitely not those people.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Euro goes straight into AL

 

[pcbjr]

Let's see ... Savannah to Biloxi in a 24 hour swing ... wanna put some money on the table yet?

 

[ncskywarn]

Looking at upper levels looks like it may try to turn NE and move up thru the Gerogia and the Carolina's from here.